Chances are starting to look possible for a large portion of N Georgia to see snow on Thursday. The image you are looking at above is what the HPC is considering a probability for accumulating snowfall greater than one inch. it does not indicate where snow will fall, then melt. So, where will it snow on Thursday and when?
Where and when I am Looking At
First of all this system will start out late Wednesday night as a heavy rain producer that will last through the day on Thursday. Then as the upper level winds start to change and the cold air at the mid and upper levels starts to move in, that is when we will start to see the change over to a winter mix. This should start to happen around 1-3pm on Thursday. As far as locations, here is what I am thinking:
Metro Counties: A winter mix with no accumulations
North Metro Counties: (Bartow, Floyd, Godron, Pickens, Dawson, Fannin, Gilmer) Could see a dusting on the grassy surfaces, no travel problems.
North Georgia Mountains: I think there is a good chance that by the time this system is done and gone the mountains could see around 1-2 inches!!
Dynamics of This System
This is a storm that will be unique in the sense that it is not a system that will dump snow based on the temperature at the surface, it will all be based on the mid and upper levels and there are so many uncertainties that exist over the next 48 hours. Take a look below at the 850 temp maps and you will see a HUGE difference in the temps between the NAM, GFS, and Euro in the sense that the NAM keeps a pocket of cold air that is large and cold enough to support the snow the model is saying will happen. The GFS and the Euro warm the area and are not as aggressive with the. I think that the NAM is a more likely scenario due to cooling that should be brought down from the upper levels in what is called dynamic cooling.
The bottom line on all of this: This is a storm that is still 48 hours out and a lot can change. Based on that I still think that this is a pretty accurate forecast at this point in time, things will change so make sure you check back on the blog and 11alive.com frequently. I am giving this a 3-4 on a scale of 1-10 for awareness levels. I'll keep you posted.
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