Republican presidential candidates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (L) and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA) talk during a commercial break as they participate in the NBC News, National Journal, Tampa Bay Times debate held at the University of South Florida on January 23, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, Ga. -- In Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district, in Cobb County, Georgia, his former constituents, who supported him in his fierce political battles on the national stage, have long since moved on, so many years after he left Congress in the late 20th Century.
Gingrich is in the political fight of his life, now, running for the GOP nomination for president, unsure if Peach State voters will support him again at the polls, just trying to beat Romney in Georgia, in the March 6th primary.
What does Gingrich have to do to climb out of the hole he is in, now?
Focus, says Alan Abramowitz, Political Science professor at Emory University, Gingrich's alma mater.
"He's in a difficult situation right now," and, says Abramowitz, Gingrich needs to focus his message, like a laser beam, on GOP conservatives who think Rick Santorum or Ron Paul don't have a chance.
And, Abramowitz says, Gingrich needs to focus that message over the next month especially in March 6 primary states like Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma where there are large blocks of conservative voters who identify with the Tea-Party and Evangelicals and who could make the difference at the polls, that day.
"Try to draw a contrast with Mitt Romney and portray himself as more of a conservative. That's his message. His message is, 'It's either Mitt Romney or me. If you want a true conservative as the Republican nominee, you need to support Newt Gingrich.' He has to convince them that he is the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.... If he can win some of those contests on March 6, then I think he can, at least, extend the race."
And Romney's mission, in order to win in Georgia and beyond?
"Romney's message is, 'I can beat Barack Obama.' And that's what Republican primary voters are most concerned about... If he can continue to convince Republican primary voters that he gives them their best shot at beating Obama, even if they consider him [Romney] not quite as conservative as they might like, I think that he will probably be the [GOP] nominee."
I asked the question about Gingrich on 11Alive's Facebook page, and among the many anti-Gingrich comments, so far, there's this one that underscores Abramowitz's point: "He [Gingrich] has to show the people that he is for the average Joe, not like certain "Elitist" types, he needs to ask Santorum to be his running mate, he needs to prove to us that he is NOT part of the Washington crowd and to TRULY make drastic changes in how our Government operates. No special interest groups holding his strings."
"I think Gingrich has a chance," Abramowitz says, "but it's an outside chance. It's going to be difficult for him because Mitt Romney has a big advantage in money and organization and backing by party leaders. So Gingrich is going to have to overcome all of these things and convince Republican primary voters to take a chance on him."
Which means that, in just over a month in Georgia, Newt Gingrich may just find out if he can survive to the next primaries, or if his political career will end where it began.