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Tropical Storm Debby

2:34 PM, Jun 24, 2012   |    comments
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Tropical storm Debby continues to sit and spin in the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical storm warnings have been expanded to include the Alabama coast and Florida panhandle.  The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  It is slowly moving to the north at 3mph.

This is a very difficult storm to forecast.  The official track from the NHC pushes this storm to the west toward Texas.  It also has it strengthening to hurricane status by Tuesday.  This forecast track is not set in stone though.  Many of the models push this to the northern Gulf coast, others to the western Florida coast.

There is a battle as to what is going to guide it.  If the high to the north is the main guide, the clockwise flow around that would push it to Texas.  If the trough in the middle of the country takes over, then it would move more to the north or east.  Everyone on the Gulf coast needs to watch this closely.  It is too early to tell whether or not we will have any effects from this storm. 

It will be hot again today with a high in the low 90s.  Only a slight chance of an isolated late afternoon or early evening shower.

Here's the latest advisory from the NHC:

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA GULF COAST...
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN
TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...60
KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS.  THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
 
APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
 
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
 
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

 

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