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Tropical Storm Debby

5:10 PM, Jun 24, 2012   |    comments
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Tropical Storm Debby maintains 60mph max winds.  It is slowly moving to the northeast right now.  As I mentioned in the early blogs, I really expect this track of Debby to move more to the north and east of the official track from the National Hurricane Center.  Earlier, the NHC was moving it into Texas.  Now, the NHC is shifting the track away from Texas and toward the north Gulf Coast.

Check out the map that shows the forecast track and that shift. The NHC now has it gaining hurricane strength and moving inland in Louisiana. sometime on Wednesday. 

I still think this track is going to shift even more to the NE over the next couple of days.  All interests along the Gulf coast need to keep a close eye on it.

Don't just focus on the area of landfall.  Since this is so close to the coast, it will affect a big area.  Much of Florida's Gulf coast, Alabama coast and Louisiana coast will get a lot of rain and storms.  Plenty of rough surf and rip currents, too.

See below for the NHC advisory from 2pm EDT.  Bookmark the WIZarmy weather page, http://wizarmy.11alive.com/ , and check it throughout the day for indepth weather information

 

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST... 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE TRACK
BEYOND THAT TIME IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

 

 

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