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Tropical Storm Debby

5:20 PM, Jun 24, 2012   |    comments
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There is a major shift in the forecast track for Tropical Storm Debby.  The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center now shows the storm track moving into the Florida panhandle by Wednesday.  If you scroll back on the WIZarmy page, http://wizarmy.11alive.com/ , you will see that we have anticipating the potential for this storm to move more towards Florida rather than Texas.

The track also keeps this storm as a tropical storm until it makes landfall.  Right now, it doesn't look like it would get to hurricane strength at landfall.  Right now, max winds are 60mph.  The storm is moving NE very slowly at 3mph.

Don't just focus on the center of the storm for landfall.  It is affecting a large part of the Gulf coast region.  There have been numerous water rescues in Orange Beach, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida Sunday.  There is rough surf, heavy rain and tropical storm force winds.

The tropical storm warning remains in effect for much of the northern Gulf coast.  The NHC has discontinued the warnings for the Louisiana coastline.

Here's the 5pm advisory from the NHC:

...THREAT TO LOUISIANA LESSENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
FLORIDA...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES...A FEW ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT

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