ATLANTA -- A new exclusive scientific poll shows the race for Georgia's governor is statistically tied. The poll was commissioned by 11Alive and conducted by Survey USA.
Over the past three weeks, since an earlier poll was conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of 11Alive, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal has watched a 9-point lead evaporate.
Forty-five percent of registered likely voters plan to vote for Nathan Deal, 44% for Jason Carter. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%, so they are statistically tied.
FULL POLL RESULTS: Dive deeper into 11Alive's exclusive poll and see demographic result details
Middle age voters (35 to 49) were leaning towards Deal by 23 points in August. He now trails by 5, a 28-point left turn. Deal had led by 3 among women, now trails by 10, a 13-point left turn. Carter biggest gains came from moderates and independents. Libertarian Andrew Hunt could complicate the race. Today, he carries 4% of the vote. If either Carter or Deal wins by just 1 point, and Hunt gets 4%, there will be a Dec. 4 runoff among the top-2 finishers.
Ken Alper with Survey USA said the number of respondents identifying themselves as likely voters is up: "Election Day is now less than two months away, and as both campaigning and polling increase, the electorate is beginning to focus. People who previously may have identified as being less than 100% certain they would vote are now increasingly telling us that they are in fact certain to vote in this election."
Nunn gains women's vote, cuts Perdue's lead
Republican David Perdue's lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn went from 9 points to 3 since the poll three weeks ago. Perdue led 50% to 41% on 08/18/14, when many voters were still on vacation. Today, with most of Georgia back from summer break, Perdue leads 47% to 44%.
The 08/18/14 poll and today's 09/09/14 poll were conducted identically. Most of the poll-on-poll movement in the Senate race comes from women, who had favored Nunn by 2 points, but now favor Nunn by 12 points.
Other Poll Results
-Casey Cagle leads Lieutenant Governor's race 51%, over Connie Stokes 40%.
-Brian Kemp leads the Secretary of State's race 52% to Doreen Carter's 39%
-Sam Olens leads Attorney General's race 49% to Greg Hecht 41%
-Richard Woods leads State School Superintendent 47% to Valarie Wilson's 43%