Updated 9/8/2008 7:52:19 PM
ATLANTA -- Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for Vice President, is putting Georgia "in play" again for the GOP this election year.
That's the consensus of political analysts from the right, middle and left, who had been saying that Obama might win Georgia in November.
But the Palin factor has changed the political equation here. She's awakened the sleeping giant of Georgia's electorate.
"What [Palin's nomination] may well do is to energize that portion of the conservative element in the State of Georgia," said Clark Atlanta University Political Science Professor William Boone, "conservative Republicans who may have decided, 'I'll stay home [on election day]' or consider even Bob Barr. But certainly, they will come out" and vote, now that Palin's on the ticket.
Georgia is a perfect example of how Palin helps McCain in normally "red" states where conservatives who don't care that much for McCain might have stayed home on election day, but now say they will come out and vote for him simply because they like Palin.
In fact, McCain was not expected to do much of any organizing in Georgia. Georgia Democrats were stepping into that vacuum, and with Obama at the top of the ticket they were hoping to splash some "blue" onto that red canvas.
"I think both sides are recalibrating now," said Professor Boone. "Georgia now may not turn purple," he said with a chuckle. "It may be tougher for the Democrats, and for Obama's folk, to turn it purple, or at least, less shade of red than what it is."
Young parents in Atlanta's Morningside and Virginia-Highland neighborhoods, where Democrats normally rule, are taking a look at Sarah Palin and, like Cathleen Miller, a Republican and the mother of two small children, they consider Palin to be McCain's better half, his not-so-secret weapon for victory,
"I'm one of those who's probably just a little more juiced now that Palin's on the ticket," said Miller, at a Northeast Atlanta playground where she had brought her children for a play break early Monday afternoon. "She seems pretty much like a straight shooter. I like her. I like that she's a little bit more conservative than McCain. She is kind of a balance to him. I think that she's gotten people pretty pumped about voting for that ticket. I do hear from my Republican friends who were disappointed that McCain was the candidate, they were hoping for somebody else. But now that she's on the ticket, they're just way more excited about voting for him, or actually going to vote for him, now."
"I think the Palin Factor is going to be huge in Georgia," said Emory University Political Scientist Merle Black. "She's just what the Republican Party needed here in this state. She has really energized the conservative base. But, also, I think Chamber of Commerce Republican voters love her because of her position on energy and gas prices, stuff like that. I think she's going to be a huge hit, and I'm sure they're fighting over trying to get her into Georgia as soon as possible" to campaign.
Black and Boone agree that Obama has a huge head start in Georgia, having spent millions of dollars, already, on television advertising in the state. And Obama has opened campaign offices across the state that are solidifying grass-roots support. McCain has no campaign offices in Georgia.
"I think the Democrats still have a shot at Georgia," Black said, "because African American voter registration is up, it's slightly above 28 percent, right now. But this really is a kind of counterbalance to Barack Obama's support in Georgia. I think she's a huge factor, and it's all in the Republican's favor."
Before the end of the week, pollsters are expected to measure exactly how much of a factor Palin is in Georgia, right now.
