Here in Georgia, Trump is only ahead by one point among likely voters, 45 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 8 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot here. In September, Trump led by two points, 44-to-42 percent.In Arizona, Trump leads Clinton by five points among likely votes with a 45-to-40 percent margin, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holds at 9 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 3 percent. This is up slightly from Trump's September lead when he was ahead of Clinton in the four-way race, 40-to-38 percent.
In Texas, Trump's lead over Clinton is up to nine points, 49-to-40 percent. Johnson is at 6 percent and Stein is at 2 percent.One of the biggest reasons that Georgia is more competitive than Arizona is due to the African American vote holding a larger -- and more lopsided presence than the Latino vote than in Arizona.
In Georgia, black voters make up 29 percent of the likely voter base, and among those, according to the polling data, they are voting for Clinton by a 91-to-6 percent margin. In Arizona, Latinos make up about 21 percent of likely voters, and they are supporting Clinton by a much smaller margin: 66-to-26 percent.All three states permit early in-person voting, and Trump is ahead in all three states, though that margin is narrow in Arizona and Georgia.
In Georgia, 40 percent of likely voters say they have already voted, and Trump has a two point lead -- 48 percent to 46 percent.incumbent Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson is ahead of Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale by 11 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Allen Buckley getting 7 percent.
If the winner doesn’t clear 50 percent in that Georgia race, the top-two finishers compete in a Jan. 10 runoff election.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1. In Arizona, the poll interviewed 948 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 719 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points). In Georgia, the poll interviewed 937 registered voters (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 707 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points). And in Texas, the poll interviewed 943 registered voters (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 679 likely voters (plus-minus 3.8 percentage points).
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