When you think of fall, you think of cooler days, crisp nights, and leaves turning from green to an assortment of vibrant colors.
And that's usually the order of things - temperatures cool and leaves change color. But we haven't exactly been cooling off much this fall.
In Atlanta, we experienced the second warmest September on record. Temperatures have not fallen below 60 for a record number of days, and we will challenge a record high Thursday.
So, if the temperatures aren't falling, what about the leaves? How could the warm weather impact the fall foliage? It could delay the peak of fall colors - defined as the best colors over the greatest area.
Why would it delay the peak?
Based on our start to fall, we aren't set up for optimal fall color conditions. It's been warm and dry the past month.
From a weather perspective, let's look back at another September which was very warm. The most recent would be 2016 where temperatures were five to six degrees above average for the month. This gives us a rough - but good - starting point to compare foliage at that time with now.
Interestingly enough, that is also the proxy year being used by Regional Forester Ken Masten of the Georgia Forestry Commission. Masten said he can approximate the timing of foliage based on a couple of maple trees in White County he has watched over the years.
When those trees start to turn, it won't be long until the rest follow suit. Masten said on his recent visit to those trees that they look very similar to the photo he took of them at the start of October 2016.
But there is one catch about using 2016 as a proxy - there was a much worse drought that year compared to 2018. The amount of soil moisture plays into the timing of peak fall foliage. The more moisture the better the number of leaves left on the trees, so the more color you see.
He said, overall, the foliage of 2016 was about a week behind the normal peak.
So when is the peak going to be this year?
Masten said that, right now, he believes the peak will be late October and early November, with peak defined as the most widespread and best color overall. A week from now, foresters should have an even better idea when the peak period is.
Higher-terrain areas will turn colorful before lower terrain spots will. In fact, by the time we hit the peak, parts of the North Georgia Mountains may be past peak. So, if you are itching to see some fall colors, head to the mountains in a week or two and you will probably see some good looking trees.
Masten added that there are no bad years for foliage - just some are better than others.
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