HALL COUNTY, Ga. — With Gov. Brian Kemp's order to begin Georgia's reopening process turning two weeks old today, 11Alive is looking at how things have developed since then.
It's understood that, because of how the coronavirus takes time to incubate and how symptoms develop, there is a distinct lag between the conditions that create cases and when we actually recognize whether those conditions created more or fewer cases.
Two weeks from the day businesses such as salons, tattoo parlors and bowling alleys were allowed to reopen - albeit under strict guidelines - does not give us a perfect understanding of the implications of Georgia's reopening.
Nothing could, given how we only have imperfect data to work with (for a number of reasons), and given that there are more factors that go into the rise and fall of cases than just the governor's orders.
But we do have good data, and we can get a decent sense of how things are going. It will take weeks to have a true concrete sense of what resulted from reopen, but that doesn't mean we can't glance now at how things stand.
At 11Alive, we're using a 14-day moving average to look at case totals. Case totals can be an imperfect indicator and do not offer a definitive answer to the most important question - is the coronavirus situation here getting better or worse?
But it is one of the most significant benchmarks in President Trump's guidelines for reopening the country, and therefore one of the things we - and everyone else - has to try and assess.
Why a 14-day average? Again, it's the standard presented by the White House.
Hall has been one of the developing hot spots in the metro area - and in Georgia more broadly - including a huge one-day spike on May 2.
It's impossible, for a multitude of reasons including in how data is reported, to pin that one-day jump on any one factor. But that collection of cases, and the general plateau of sizable case counts that followed this week, falls into a time period that could suggest beginning to reopen on April 24 had an exacerbating effect on Hall's upward trend.
If the moving average stays around the height it is now next week, it may be possible to draw more of a correlation and say it helped established a new, higher baseline for the outbreak in Hall County.
Hall County is also the home of many chicken processing plants where there have been outbreaks of the coronavirus.
11Alive is focusing our news coverage on the facts and not the fear around the virus. We want to keep you informed about the latest developments while ensuring that we deliver confirmed, factual information.
We will track the most important coronavirus elements relating to Georgia on this page. Refresh often for new information.
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