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Fantasy Football: A way-too-early preview of the 'PPR Spectacular'

11Alive Sports offers a preview of fantasy's PPR Draft Spectacular, breaking down targets-driven initiatives for playmakers at receiver, tight end and tailback.

We all love summer vacation.

However, there's just something about the adrenaline rush that accompanies the middle of July, with NFL training camps nearly in full swing, thus opening the door to a riveting preseason.

(The above comment comes without an ounce of derision. I genuinely love DVRing exhibition games for Weeks 1-3 ... provided it's first-half only.)

With Mock Draft Season upon us, 11Alive Sports offers an early preview of the annual PPR Draft Spectacular, breaking down certain targets-driven initiatives for fantasy playmakers at wide receiver, tight end and running back.

FUN FACT #1

Among receivers, Antonio Brown likely boasts the greatest four-year track record in NFL history, averaging 118 catches, 173 targets, 1,587 yards and 11 touchdowns since 2014.

Putting that into perspective, league history only has 14 recorded instances of 118-plus single-season receptions.

In case you're wondering ... Jerry Rice's most prolific four-year stretch occurred from 1993-96, when the Hall of Famer enjoyed annual averages of 110 receptions, 158 targets, 1,526 yards and 13 touchdowns.

TOP 75 PPR WIDEOUTS

1-25

1. Antonio Brown, Steelers

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

3. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants

4. Michael Thomas, Saints

5. Mike Evans, Buccaneers

6. Keenan Allen, Chargers

7. Julio Jones, Falcons

8. A.J. Green, Bengals

9. Davante Adams, Packers

10. Adam Thielen, Vikings

11. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

12. Jarvis Landry, Browns

13. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks

14. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

15. T.Y. Hilton, Colts

16. Golden Tate, Lions

17. Brandin Cooks, Rams

18. Amari Cooper, Raiders

19. Alshon Jeffery, Eagles

20. Stefon Diggs, Vikings

21. Allen Robinson, Bears

22. Devin Funchess, Panthers

23. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

24. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers

25. Corey Davis, Titans

26-50

26. Sterling Shepard, Giants

27. Michael Crabtree, Ravens

28. Marvin Jones, Lions

29. Kelvin Benjamin, Bills

30. Pierre Garcon, 49ers

31. Marqise Lee, Jaguars

32. Cooper Kupp, Rams

33. Jamison Crowder, Redskins

34. Robert Woods, Rams

35. Will Fuller, Texans

36. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs

37. Jordy Nelson, Raiders

38. Robby Anderson, Jets

39. Mike Williams, Chargers

40. Marquise Goodwin, 49ers

41. Josh Gordon, Browns

42. Chris Hogan, Patriots

43. DeVante Parker, Dolphins

44. Martavis Bryant, Raiders

45. Mohamed Sanu, Falcons

46. Allen Hurns, Cowboys

47. Josh Doctson, Redskins

48. Rishard Matthews, Titans

49. Deonte Thompson, Cowboys

50. Torrey Smith, Panthers

51-75

51. Kenny Stills, Dolphins

52. Randall Cobb, Packers

53. Julian Edelman, Patriots

54. Kenny Golladay, Lions

55. Calvin Ridley, Falcons

56. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos

57. Danny Amendola, Dolphins

58. Cameron Meredith, Saints

59. D.J. Moore, Panthers

60. Jermaine Kearse, Jets

61. Nelson Agholor, Eagles

62. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

63. Dede Westbrook, Jaguars

64. Paul Richardson, Redskins

66. Corey Coleman, Browns

67. Donte Moncrief, Jaguars

68. Jordan Matthews, Patriots

69. Chris Conley/Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs

70. Kevin White, Bears

71. Christian Kirk, Cardinals

72. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

73. Geronimo Allison, Packers

74. Terrance Williams, Cowboys

75. DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers

FUN FACT #2

Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins (96 catches, 1,378 yards, 13 TDs last year) has collected double-digit targets and/or one touchdown in 16 consecutive outings.

This feat holds even greater value, when factoring in this:

During that period, Hopkins caught balls from four different Houston quarterbacks (Brock Osweiler, Deshaun Watson, Tom Savage, T.J. Yates)—and only one of substance.

TARGETS ACQUIRED

Here's one way of quantifying consistency with PPR and daily fantasy leagues. These 16 wideouts notched at least eight games of eight-plus targets during the regular season:

14 games—Michael Thomas

13 games—DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, Demaryius Thomas

12—Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans

11—Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Adam Thielen

10—None

9—Dez Bryant (2018 free agent)

8—Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, Davante Adams, DeVante Parker

On the curious side ... 21 different receivers hit the eight-game benchmark in 2016.

Read into that however you see fit.

FUN FACT #3

Keenan Allen has suited up for only 25 games over the last three seasons. During that span, the University of Cal product has absurdly amassed double-digit targets 14 times.

THE CREAM ALWAYS RISES

During the 2017 regular season, 24 wideouts crossed the PPR-elite threshold of seven catches, 95 yards and/or one touchdown at least seven times:

15 games—DeAndre Hopkins

14 games—None

13—None

12—None

11—Jarvis Landry

10—Davante Adams

9—Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Golden Tate, Nelson Agholor

8—Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Baldwin, Marvin Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster

7—Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Mike Evans, Robby Anderson, Devin Funchess, Tyreek Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Stefon Diggs

Soaking up the above stats, one could make a strong case for drafting Hopkins over Antonio Brown.

BALTIMORE, HUH?

Raise your hand if you forgot Michael Crabtree no longer plays for the Raiders.

Which brings us to this: Can you name the last Ravens wide receiver to collect 80 or more receptions in a given season?

(Pause for effect)

Try Derrick Mason ... from wayyyyyy back in 2008.

Hence, my ultra-conservative (or highly skeptical) ranking for Crabtree, who signed with Baltimore during the offseason.

FUN FACT #4

See if you can spot the 'X' factor involving Texans wideout Will Fuller and his 2017 splits.

Per-game averages with Deshaun Watson at quarterback (four outings): 3.3 catches, 70 yards, 1.8 TDs

Per-game averages with any other Houston QB (six outings): 2.5 catches, 24 yards, 0 TDs

TOP 35 PPR TIGHT ENDS

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

2. Travis Kelce, Chiefs

3. Zach Ertz, Eagles

4. Greg Olsen, Panthers

5. Evan Engram, Giants

6. Jimmy Graham, Packers

7. Delanie Walker, Titans

8. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings

9. Trey Burton, Bears

10. Cameron Brate, Buccaneers

11. George Kittle, 49ers

12. Charles Clay, Bills

13. Jordan Reed, Redskins

14. Jack Doyle, Colts

15. Benjamin Watson, Saints

16. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jaguars

17. Eric Ebron, Colts

18. Hayden Hurst, Ravens

19. Luke Willson, Lions

20. David Njoku, Browns

21. Tyler Eifert/Tyler Kroft, Bengals

22. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers

23. Austin Hooper, Falcons

24. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins

25. Jared Cook, Raiders

26. Vance McDonald, Steelers

27. Geoff Swaim/Blake Jarwin, Cowboys

28. Ryan Griffin, Texans

29. Jake Butt, Broncos (intriguing upside)

30. Ricky Seals-Jones, Cardinals

31. Tyler Higbee/Gerald Everett, Rams

32. Adam Shaheen, Bears

33. Mark Andrews, Ravens

34. Nick Vannett/Ed Dickson, Seahawks

35. Darren Fells, Browns

35a. Michael Roberts, Lions

FUN FACT #5

Counting only regular-season action for his career, Rob Gronkowski has scored a touchdown in three straight games 21 different times.

Here's another stat to appreciate:

Of the six seasons in which Gronkowski logged at least 10 games, he's a perfect 6 for 6 in collecting 1,000 receiving yards and/or double-digit touchdowns; and for those healthy campaigns (2010-12, 2014-15, 2017), Gronk owns sterling annual averages of 68.3 catches, 1,008 yards and 11.5 touchdowns.

TARGETS ACQUIRED, PART II

These 10 tight ends notched at least seven games of six-plus targets last season.

By comparison, 14 tight ends crossed the same threshold in 2016.

12 games—Travis Kelce, Evan Engram

11 games—Rob Gronkowski

10—Jimmy Graham

9—Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Jack Doyle

8—None

7—Jared Cook, Eric Ebron, Kyle Rudolph,

FUN FACT #6

Charting his last 25 complete games (including the playoffs), Steelers tailback Le'Veon Bell has reached the elite-level threshold of 100 total yards and/or one touchdown 22 times.

The three so-called clunkers can be easily rationalized, as well:

a) Bell needed the first two games last year to get in football shape, after missing all of training camp (contract dispute).

b) For last October's loss to the Jaguars, Bell accounted for 93 total yards and 10 receptions—or the equivalent of 19.3 PPR points.

For that Week 5, a touchdown-free Bell still finished fifth among PPR backs.

TOP 60 PPR TAILBACKS

1-30

1. Todd Gurley, Rams

2. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers

3. David Johnson, Cardinals

4. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

5. Alvin Kamara, Saints

6. Kareem Hunt, Chiefs

7. Melvin Gordon, Chargers

8. Devonta Freeman, Falcons

9. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers

10. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars

11. Saquon Barkley, Giants

12. Dalvin Cook, Vikings

13. Jerick McKinnon, 49ers

14. Joe Mixon, Bengals

15. Jordan Howard, Bears

16. Kenyan Drake, Dolphins

17. Alex Collins, Ravens

18. Lamar Miller, Texans

19. LeSean McCoy, Bills

20. Jay Ajayi, Eagles

21. Derrick Henry, Titans

22. Tevin Coleman, Falcons

23. Jamaal Williams, Packers

24. Carlos Hyde, Browns

25. Marshawn Lynch, Raiders

26. Kerryon Johnson, Lions

27. James White, Patriots

28. Nick Chubb, Browns

29. Derrius Guice, Redskins

30. Rashaad Penny, Seahawks

31-60

31. Dion Lewis, Titans

32. Mark Ingram, Saints

33. Chris Thompson, Redskins

34. Sony Michel, Patriots

35. Royce Freeman, Broncos

36. Bilal Powell, Jets

37. Marlon Mack, Colts

38. Ronald Jones, Buccaneers

39. Theo Riddick, Lions

40. Duke Johnson, Browns

41. Isaiah Crowell, Jets

42. Corey Clement, Eagles

43. Tarik Cohen, Bears

44. Gio Bernard, Bengals

45. Ty Montgomery, Packers

46. D'Onta Foreman, Texans

47. Devontae Booker, Broncos

48. LeGarrette Blount, Lions

49. Chris Carson, Seahawks

50. Rex Burkhead, Patriots

51. Latavius Murray, Vikings

52. Frank Gore, Dolphins

53. Doug Martin, Raiders

54. C.J. Anderson, Panthers

55. C.J. Prosise, Seahawks

56. Matt Breida, 49ers

57. Peyton Barber, Buccaneers

58. Aaron Jones, Packers

59. Mark Walton, Bengals

60. Kenneth Dixon/Javorius Allen, Ravens

60b. Ameer Abdullah, Lions

POINT OF CLARIFICATION

On talent alone, LeSean McCoy easily merits a top-10 slot among tailbacks. However, given the uncertainty of his real-life quandary that may or may not involve the Bills tailback (too early to tell), the new placeholder ranking shall reside outside the top 15.

That said, it's safe to assume McCoy's situation—for better or worse—will have clarity by mid-August (when fantasy drafts launch). But still, the man has a lot on his plate right now.

Numbers-wise, since 2015, Shady has averaged 1,465 total yards and nine touchdowns. Of equal importance, McCoy holds strong annual averages of 47 receptions, 61 targets and 365 receiving yards with Buffalo.

FUN FACT #7

It's hard to shed a tear over Mark Ingram's four-game suspension to start the season, thus enabling Alvin Kamara to dominate the PPR world for a minimum of 4-6 weeks.

In his final 11 regular-season outings, the rookie Kamara averaged five catches, six targets, 113 yards and one touchdown ... without collecting 20-plus touches in a single game.

OPPOSING FORCES AT WORK

There are two ways to characterize David Johnson's fantasy candidacy for the upcoming season:

a) The optimist might say: From Thanksgiving weekend 2015 to Week 16 of the 2016 campaign, spanning 21 regular-season outings ... Johnson notched 100 total yards and/or one touchdown 20 times.

b) The negative person would counter: Johnson has suffered a significant injury in each of his last two games.

50-AND-OVER CLUB

Here's a look at the 19 running backs who collected a minimum of 50 receiving targets last season:

1. Christian McCaffrey — 113 targets

2. Le'Veon Bell — 106

3. Alvin Kamara — 101

4. Duke Johnson — 93

5. Carlos Hyde — 88

6. Todd Gurley — 87

7. Melvin Gordon — 79

8. LeSean McCoy — 77

9. James White — 72

10. Tarik Cohen — 71

11. Mark Ingram — 71

12. Theo Riddick — 71

13. Jerick McKinnon — 68

14. Kareem Hunt — 63

15. Javorius Allen — 60

16. Gio Bernard — 60

17. Andre Ellington — 59 (only 11 games)

18. Chris Thompson — 54 (only 10 games)

19. Shane Vereen — 53

FUN FACT #8

For the final 10 games of the 2016 campaign (including the playoffs), Falcons tailback Tevin Coleman racked up 100 total yards and/or one touchdown eight times.

And for Weeks 4-12 last season, spanning eight games, Coleman stealthily accounted for 100 total yards and/or one TD seven times.

Not bad for someone who will be available in Round 8 of PPR drafts.

The final lesson here: Poor draft preparation makes fantasy cowards of us all ... so get to work!

Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and 2015 Cynopsis Media award winner for "Sports Blog Of The Year," has previously served as the lead fantasy analyst for Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports South, Bleacher Report and Fanball.com.

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