ATLANTA — Gov. Brian Kemp is on track for reelection as Georgia's governor, according to a new 11Alive poll that places him comfortably ahead of David Perdue in the GOP primary and in front of Stacey Abrams for a potential general election race in November.
The poll was commissioned through SurveyUSA and conducted between April 22-27 with nearly 1,300 likely November voters as well as roughly 550 likely primary voters for each party.
11Alive's results reflect several other recently-released polls that indicate growing momentum for Gov. Kemp against former Sen. Perdue, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump. It also reflects the persistent edge Kemp has had in polling on a potential rematch with Abrams of the 2018 governor's race.
Brian Kemp vs. David Perdue
Earlier polling has shown Kemp with a substantial advantage in fending off Perdue's campaign to end his reelection bid early. The 11Alive/SurveyUSA poll confirms his strong standing with Georgia Republican primary voters.
The poll gives the governor a 25-point edge on Perdue, 56% to 31%. The full results break down below:
If you were filling out your Republican primary ballot for Governor today, who would you vote for?
- Catherine Davis - 1%
- Brian Kemp - 56%
- David Perdue - 31%
- Kandiss Taylor - 3%
- Tom Williams - 1%
- Undecided - 8%
This is the third major poll in the last two weeks to give the governor a 20+ point edge on Perdue. The RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted since January gives Kempt a 13.8-point lead.
In 11Alive's polling, Perdue rates closer among self-identifying "very conservative" voters, though still not ahead of Kemp - with the governor leading among those voters 48-40%. Among "conservative" voters, Kemp leads 61-27% and 58-30% among "moderate" voters.
The results do show Trump's influence on the race - among voters who identified "election integrity" as their top issue, Perdue wins 56-30%. However, only 5% of likely Republican primary voters polled by 11Alive named that their top issue. Nearly half - 44% - identified the economy as their top issue, and among those voters Kemp leads Perdue 59-28%. Kemp also wins big among the 11% of likely GOP primary voters who named crime their top issue - 68-19%.
Also, despite Trump's endorsement of Perdue, those voters polled by 11Alive who voted for Trump in 2020 (87% of the likely GOP primary voting respondents) support Kemp 57-32%.
Brian Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams
11Alive's poll suggests a second race between Kemp and Abrams would again go down as a close one.
With a margin of error of 3.4% from a polling sample of 1,278 likely general election voters, the result breaks down below:
If the November election for Georgia Governor were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for?
- Brian Kemp - 50%
- Stacey Abrams - 45%
- Undecided - 5%
That generally aligns with the 5.3-point lead Kemp has had over Abrams in the RealClearPolitics average of polls since January.
Within those results, there are stark demographic breakdowns that reveal the fault lines upon which the campaign for governor could be waged.
Among men, Kemp leads 54-42%, while Abrams maintains a slight edge among women, 48-46%.
Voters between 18-34 (51-43%) and 35-49 (51-46%) support Abrams, while voters between 50-64 (53-43%) and 65+ (57-36%) support Kemp.
The racial composition of voter turnout will undoubtedly be a major factor - Black voters support Abrams 84-12%, while white voters support Kemp 71-24%, with Hispanic voters slightly breaking for Kemp as well at 49-45%.
Further results suggest that six months out, the race is very much still taking shape in the center. Independents, who made up 17% of respondents to the poll, slightly favor Kemp 45-42%, but self-described "moderate" voters - 32% of respondents - strongly support Abrams 55-37%.
As in the GOP primary, Kemp scores favorably on the economy - 31% of respondents identified it as their top issue, and those voters support Kemp 65-31%. Similarly, those identifying crime support Kemp 54-42%.
Abrams scores well among the 9% of voters who identified health care as their top issue - 55-35% ahead of Kemp. And she enjoys large margins of support among the 5% of voters who prioritized racial injustice (83-13%) and the 5% who prioritized voter suppression (87-11%).
The polling also placed a potential Perdue vs. Abrams race before respondents, with Perdue ahead 49-46% and 5% undecided. That also tracks with the 3-point lead Perdue has had in the RealClearPolitics average.