ATLANTA — Sen. Raphael Warnock has a slim edge toward defeating Herschel Walker and retaining his Senate seat, according to a new 11Alive poll released five days ahead of the Georgia runoff.
The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA and surveyed 1,800 Georgia adults between Nov. 26-30, of whom 1,214 were determined to be likely voters.
It indicates Warnock may be able to build on his advantage in the Nov. 8 general election results, in which he had about a 1% edge on Walker, though he did not clear the 50% + 1 threshold that would have averted the runoff.
In this poll, he has a 50%-46% lead on Walker, with 4% undecided. The margin of error in the poll was 3.6 percentage points. This is broadly in line with some other recent polling, which has shown Warnock with leads of between 2-4 points.
The incumbent Democrat's standing has improved slightly since 11Alive's previous poll, days before the general election. In that survey, 43% of respondents gave him an unfavorable rating while 40% of respondents gave him a favorable rating.
In this most recent poll, Warnock has a 42%-42% favorable/unfavorable split. Walker has improved somewhat, too - the previous poll had him at 30% favorable to 50% unfavorable, while this one has his split at 33%-49%.
Demographic breakdowns suggest the makeup of the runoff electorate will be highly important - voters aged 18-49 strongly favor Warnock, as do women and Black and Hispanic voters. Men, white voters and voters aged 50 and above strongly favor Walker.
Below is a look at the questions asked along with more information from the poll.
Full 11Alive Raphael Warnock vs. Herschel Walker poll results
- 1,214 likely Georgia runoff voters
- 54% of respondents were women, 46% men
- 60% of respondents were white voters, 27% Black voters, 8% Hispanic voters, 5% Asian or other voters
- 41% of respondents were Republicans, 35% Democrats and 22% Independents
- Margin of error: 3.6 points
If the runoff election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
- Herschel Walker (R): 46%
- Raphael Warnock (D): 50%
- Undecided: 4%
Favorability poll results
Is your overall opinion of Herschel Walker favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion?
- Favorable: 33%
- Unfavorable: 49%
- Neutral: 13%
- No opinion: 5%
What is your overall opinion of Raphael Warnock?
- Favorable: 42%
- Unfavorable: 42%
- Neutral: 11%
- No opinion: 5%
- Age demographics: Respondents 50 and up favor Walker 56-42%, respondents 18-49 support Warnock 58-35%.
- Race demographics: White respondents favor Walker 64-32%, Black respondents favor Warnock 87-9%, Hispanic respondents favor Warnock 65-32%.
- Ideological crossover: 11Alive's polling data suggests some ideological crossover support for Warnock. Republicans supported Walker in this poll 87-11%, while Democrats had substantially stronger backing for Warnock, 95-4%. Independents leaned toward Warnock 51-38%. Similarly, those self-describing as conservative favored Walker 80-17%, while those self-describing as liberal back Warnock more strongly, 88-8%. Self-described moderates supported Warnock 67-28%
- Re-capturing turnout: Walker may have an advantage here. Among 1,536 registered voters, 3% who said they voted for Walker in November said they would probably not vote again, while 4% of Warnock voters gave that response. Warnock voters were also more likely to say they were "50/50" on voting again - 9% of those who backed him in November responded this way, versus just 6% of Walker voters from November. And, Walker had an advantage among whose voters said they were 100% certain to vote in the runoff or had already voted - 77% of his November voters said they were 100% certain to vote again or had already voted, against 70% of Warnock's supporters who said they were certain to vote or already voted.