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Political polls paint vastly different pictures of Georgia's Senate race

Most polls show a tight race between Sen. Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker, but not all of them.

ATLANTA — Most political polls show a tight race between Senator Raphael Warnock and his challenger Herschel Walker, but those polls can’t seem to agree just how tight.

The majority of polls have Warnock with a slight lead, but at least one has Walker leading.

Joseph Watson, a professor of Public Affairs Communications at the University of Georgia’s Grady College of Journalism, explained that polls are a snapshot in time with the lens aimed at capturing a snippet of Georgia voters.

“I liken it to making a stew or meatloaf,” Watson added. “You might have the same basic ingredients but how every pollster assembles it is going to make a different product.”

Pictures of the battle between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker are vastly different depending on who has done the polling.

The University of Georgia has Warnock up 3%. Quinnipiac University has the incumbent senator ahead by an even wider margin of 7%. SurveyUSA’s poll for 11Alive has Sen. Warnock up 12%.

RELATED: Raphael Warnock vs. Herschel Walker Georgia Senate poll | Incumbent Democrat way ahead

Then there’s the Moore Information Group poll that gives Walker a 2% lead.

Watson said the presence of Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver could also be a factor.

“Some of the surveys look exclusively at Warnock and Walker and say just look at these two,” he said. “Others ask about all three candidates.”

While all of the polls were released in early October, Watson points out that they were gathered over different periods of time.

Another factor could be the recent influx of new voters in Georgia.

“That makes me question a lot of these models as to whether or not we’re going to necessarily be capturing individuals who may just have registered to vote very recently,” Watson concluded.

There’s also the candidates’ own internal polls that may be painting a different picture from the one we’re seeing.

11Alive is committed to helping you vote confidently by understanding the 2022 election issues that impact you. Our goal is to educate and inform our audience about the election process. We plan to do that by verifying facts, providing context, and explaining the system. Get more election resources here at /vote.


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