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Raphael Warnock vs. Herschel Walker Georgia Senate poll | Incumbent Democrat way ahead

SurveyUSA conducted the exclusive poll for 11Alive of 1,076 likely November voters between Sept. 30 and Oct. 4.

ATLANTA — Herschel Walker's embattled campaign is far behind Sen. Raphael Warnock with a little more than a month until the November midterms, a new 11Alive poll indicates

The poll finds Warnock with a substantial lead over Walker, 50% to 38%, among 1,076 likely November voters. 

SurveyUSA conducted the poll exclusively for 11Alive from Sept. 30 through Oct. 4, with 95% of it completed before The Daily Beast reported Monday night that Walker paid for a girlfriend's abortion in 2009. The Republican has publicly stated his opposition to abortion in all instances, and has denied the report and said he would sue, calling it a “flat-out lie." 

RELATED: Georgia US Senate race candidates | What to know

It is important to note that 11Alive's poll result here is an outlier among recent polls conducted, specifically with regard to Walker's support bottoming out. 

The RealClear Politics average since early September has Warnock ahead by 1.3 points. Other polls have shown Warnock's support in the range of the 50% 11Alive's poll found - but Walker has not polled below 40% in any other poll conducted recently. 

Some have shown his support declining, though, with the most recently conducted poll of this race, by Fox News in late September, putting Walker at his previous low of 43%.

(note: the poll did not specifically ask respondents about a third named candidate, instead presenting the option of "other." Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver is the only other candidate on the ballot, however.)

Herschel Walker vs. Raphael Warnock Georgia Senate poll full result

  • 1,076 likely November Georgia voters
  • Margin of error: 3.7 percentage points
  • 49% male respondents, 51% female
  • 57% white respondents, 31% Black, 8% Hispanic, 4% Asian/other

If the November election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?

  • Herschel Walker (R): 38%
  • Raphael Warnock (D): 50%
  • Other candidate: 5%
  • Undecided: 7%

Additional analysis

There are two particularly striking trends in looking at the collapse in Walker's support indicated in this poll.

  • Women: Walker trails far behind in women. While men split evenly at 44% for each candidate, women respondents to this poll favored Warnock 57%-28%.
  • Conservatives and moderates/independents: Walker trails well behind his Republican counterpart at the top of the ticket, Gov. Brian Kemp. The Georgia governor has 47% support in 11Alive's poll, 11 points ahead of Walker's 38%. Among self-identified independents, Kemp outpolls Walker with 43% in his race vs. 31% for the Senate candidate. Among self-identified moderates, those support numbers are 33% for Kemp and 21% for Walker. It goes beyond just the center - among Republicans, Kemp is at 91% support while Walker is at just 75% support. And among self-identifying conservatives, Kemp is at 81% vs. 69% for Walker.


11Alive also polled the candidates on their general favorability, which likewise found Walker well behind Warnock.

  • 1,305 registered voters
  • Margin of error: 3.3 percentage points

That result:

What is your overall opinion of Herschel Walker?

  • Favorable: 28%
  • Unfavorable: 51%
  • Neutral: 14%
  • No opinion: 7%

What is your overall opinion of Raphael Warnock?

  • Favorable: 43%
  • Unfavorable: 40%
  • Neutral: 11%
  • No opinion: 5%


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