Bowl Projections 2.0: Where does UGA stand, leading up to Florida showdown?

ATLANTA -- 11Alive Sports takes a second stab at predicting the matchups for every major bowl in college football, along with the next-tier games involving various SEC programs.

Here comes the caveat: The following projections aren't necessarily based on which teams are currently killing it in the Associated Press and Coaches Poll rankings.

It's merely an educated guess of how things will shake out over the next six Saturdays.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF–SEMIFINALS

ORANGE: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Oklahoma

BREAKDOWN

Here's my rationale for how this quartet comes together on Dec. 29 (Cotton and Orange bowls):

**Top-ranked Alabama breezes through the regular season with a perfect record, which shall include a road win over LSU (Nov. 3), home rout of Auburn in the Iron Bowl (Nov. 24) and prevailing over Georgia in the SEC title game.

**Clemson runs the table for the season, gutting out road wins over Florida State and Boston College, on the way to knocking off Virginia Tech for the ACC championship.

**Oklahoma has a brutal stretch to reach the four-team Playoff: Potential road wins at Texas Tech and West Virginia ... before exacting revenge on Texas in the Big 12 title game.

**Michigan doesn't shudder from the pressure of being the Big Ten's greatest hope for making the Playoff. The Wolverines subsequently beat Penn State, survive Ohio State and then upend a balanced Iowa squad for the conference championship.

**Oklahoma represents a controversial pick here, since other major powers are better positioned to reach the four-team Playoff.

However, as history dictates, there's typically a big distinction between the first set of rankings (late October) ... and the final grouping in early December.

In fact, the turnover rate among the Big Four can be mind-blowing, at times.

So, in case you're wondering, here's how the Sooners magically leapfrog the pack for the final Playoff slot:

a) Notre Dame carries an undefeated mark into its regular-season finale with USC. The road trip to southern California doesn't go well, however, resulting in the Irish falling out of the final foursome.

b) LSU would certainly have the resume to become the first two-loss school in College Football Playoff history, knocking off Auburn, Miami and Georgia when all three programs were ranked in the AP Top 10.

However, without a conference championship on the mantle, the CFP committee would probably look elsewhere for the final slot. (Very similar to Auburn last year.)

CLEMONS: A look at Georgia's adjusted path to reaching the four-team Playoff

CLEMONS: Projecting the field for the Oct. 30 College Football Playoff rankings

The only possible major change? The LSU-Alabama game becomes so hotly competitive ... that College Football Nation practically begs for a rematch.

(Spoiler alert: Not happening.)

c) As referenced above, Texas collects a share of the Big 12 regular-season title; but Oklahoma avenges the loss in the conference title game.

From a capitalist perspective, I certainly understand why the Big 12 has a championship bout for the masses. It's free money for the conference bean counters, along with amazing national exposure.

From a fan standpoint, however, I've never understood the absurdity of staging automatic rematches for a league title game, since every member already has a full round-robin schedule.

d) Undefeated UCF has zero margin of error: Either go perfect from Day 1 to Dec. 1 ... or there's no chance of making the Playoff.

And even then, the Knights might need help on the final weekend of action.

e) We'll change our skeptical minds about Kentucky ... the second after the Wildcats take down UGA in Lexington (next Saturday).

The rest of the schedule, leading up to the SEC championship, seems eminently doable.

g) And last but not least ...

Georgia might have gotten schooled by LSU two weeks ago, but the Dawgs still have every major goal within reach.

As such, UGA wouldn't require much outside help to make the Playoff.

Here's the simple, yet daunting plan of attack:

1. Beat Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Tech during the regular season

2. Knock off either LSU or Alabama in the SEC championship

NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS

PEACH: West Virginia vs. UCF

THE UGA CONUNDRUM

We had a nice discussion inside the 11Alive newsroom last week, built around one UGA-related dilemma:

When it comes to playing in a major bowl, would coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs prefer being close to home (Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium) and encountering UCF in a lose-win-lose matchup ... or would they rather fly out West and take on Notre Dame, as a wonderful prelude to next September's clash in Athens?

What does lose-win-lose mean? Georgia would garner very little kudos (nationally) for beating Central Florida, outside of a massive blowout.

However, if the Dawgs fell to the Knights–even though UCF hasn't lost in two years–there would be plenty of bluster coming in Smart's direction.

Upon reflection, we're opting for the former with UGA.

SEC-AFFILIATED BOWL PROJECTIONS

BIRMINGHAM: Tennessee vs. Memphis