ATLANTA — 11Alive Sports takes a sixth and final stab at predicting the matchups for every major bowl in college football, along with the next-tier games involving SEC programs.
Here comes the caveat: The following projections aren't necessarily based on which teams are currently killing it in the Associated Press and Coaches Poll rankings.
It's merely an educated guess of how things will shake out this Sunday, amid the afterglow of a potentially chaotic Championship Saturday.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF–SEMIFINALS
COTTON: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
ORANGE: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
BREAKDOWN
Here's my rationale for how this quartet comes together on Dec. 29:
1) With the exception of Texas A&M, which needed a garbage-time touchdown to make the final score respectable, top-ranked Alabama shredded every other meaningful opponent by 24 or more points.
So, why should things be any different this Saturday, factoring in the Crimson Tide's recent back-to-back shutouts of LSU and Mississippi State?
(Reminder: LSU rolled for 275 rushing yards in its 20-point thumping of Georgia last month. Three weeks later, the Tigers rushed for a grand total of 12 yards versus the Tide.)
2) Notre Dame has already locked up a berth in the four-team Playoff, the result of its perfect 12-0 mark and having no conference title game in the offing.
3) Unblemished Clemson should be considered as the Alabama Lite dark horse.
The Tigers only struggled against two opponents all season (Texas A&M, Syracuse); and for the rest, we're talking about nine blowout victories of 28 points or more.
And yet, it's hard to recall a single signature moment from the Tigers' special season, where a national audience instantly became captivated by Clemson's great tailback depth, its supreme freshman quarterback or mesmerized by the club's prolific defensive line (three first-rounders in next year's NFL draft?).
Regardless of how things shake out with the 2-3 final order, whether it's Clemson-Notre Dame, or vice versa, this has Orange Bowl written all over it.
4) From our perspective, only five teams have a realistic chance of owning the No. 4 slot in the final Playoff rankings:
Oklahoma, Ohio State, UCF, Georgia and Alabama.
a) If Alabama should fall on Saturday night (humor us for a moment) ... the Tide would likely tumble three spots to No. 4; and by virtue of this staggering occurrence, 'Bama and Georgia would be on opposite sides of the four-team Playoff bracket.
b) Last week, our Chaos Theory piece for Georgia garnered strong Web traffic for five straight days.
The surreal explanation: People love chaos and confusion with late-season college polls. Plus, the majority of hypotheticals presented to the audience last weekend came true.
Namely ...
**Washington State losing to Washington
**Michigan getting crushed by Ohio State
**Texas posting a less-than-stellar win over Kansas
**LSU surrendering 'tiebreaker' rights over UGA ... by losing to Texas A&M in seven overtimes
As such, if Georgia can put a viable scare into Alabama in the SEC title game (holding the lead in the fourth quarter), the Playoff committee must consider the Dawgs for the national semifinals–even as a two-loss, non-champion.
c) Let's be honest: UCF (12-0 overall, playing for American Athletic title) needs Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Washington to lose this weekend; and even with this windfall, Texas still has a chance to leapfrog the Knights for the final Playoff spot (two victories over Oklahoma).
Bottom line: The Playoff committee doesn't really want Central Florida in the Big Four.
Especially with the built-in excuse of UCF no longer having access to its starting quarterback (McKenzie Milton).
d) It's a simple, two-bit proposition for Oklahoma: Avenge that early-season loss to Texas (Saturday), while hoping for an Alabama victory ... and the Sooners are in!
e) Consequently, Ohio State needs to win big on Saturday (preferably by 40 points) and then hope for Oklahoma and Georgia to fall.
A difficult road ... but hardly implausible. At the very least, Ohio State makes the Rose Bowl.
It's quite possibly the greatest consolation prize in all of sports.
NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWLS PROJECTION
ROSE: Ohio State vs. Washington
SUGAR: Georgia vs. West Virginia
FIESTA: Florida vs. UCF
PEACH: LSU vs. Michigan
SEC-AFFILIATED BOWL PROJECTIONS
CITRUS: Kentucky vs. Syracuse
OUTBACK: Texas A&M vs. Penn State
TAXSLAYER: Missouri vs. Northwestern
LIBERTY: South Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
TEXAS: Auburn vs. Iowa State
BELK: Vanderbilt vs. Pittsburgh
MUSIC CITY: Mississippi State vs. Boston College
NOTE: The SEC doesn't have any more eligible squads for the Independence and Birmingham bowls.
