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Atlanta Braves: Projecting the club's target dates for clinching the NL East

The Braves (77-64) lead the Phillies by 2 1/2 games; and comparatively speaking, Atlanta has an easier schedule down the stretch.
Credit: Mike Stobe

ATLANTA—You heard it here first, folks:

The Braves will win the National League East title ... and well before the final day of the regular season.

That's a promise, and not just a tenuous prediction, bolstered by a few hidden caveats.

For me, the foundation of such hubris, despite Atlanta possessing just a 2 1/2-game lead (as of Sept. 7), derives from four factual nuggets:

a) In the wild-card era (1995-2017), only three teams have captured the NL East crown with a losing record on the road; and right now, the Phillies lag nine games below .500 (31-40), when playing away from Citizens Bank Park.

Want to hear something funny? The Braves account for all three flawed division champs during this decades-long stretch–posting losing road marks in 1996 (lost in the World Series), 2005 (lost in the NLDS) and 2013 (lost to Dodgers in NLDS).

b) Philly has been atrocious over the last month, enduring an ugly 11-18 record since Aug. 6. On a shorter scale, the Phillies have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last seven outings.

c) The 77-64 Braves are on pace for 89 wins; but for the Phillies (74-66) to reach that ambitious tally, they would need a finishing kick of 15-7.

What's more, if Atlanta should improve its projection by a mere victory, the Philly obligation would subsequently rise to 16-6 for the month.

Why is this so daunting? From 2013-18, the Phillies have enjoyed just one random stretch of 16-6 during the same season(July 17-Aug, 12, 2015).

d) Philly pitcher Aaron Nola (16-4, 2.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, on pace for 220-plus strikeouts) may be a viable candidate for NL Cy Young, but check out the 30-day numbers for the other Phillies starters:

Jake Arrieta—1-3, 5.93 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .275 opponents' batting average

Zach Elfin—1-3, 5.47 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .330 opponents' batting average

Nick Pivetta—0-2, 5.33 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .268 opponents' batting average

Vince Velasquez—1-2, 5.75 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .269 opponents' batting average

BRAVES' MAGIC NUMBER: 20

Now that we've established Philadelphia's tough odds of catching Atlanta for NL East glory, let's hammer down the date in which the Braves clinch their first playoff berth in five years.

Earliest Possible Clinching Date: Sept. 23

**In this scenario, the Braves' magic number would be at 1 or 2; and only a head-to-head victory against the Phillies would produce an outright clinch on that day.

**For this to occur, Atlanta would need a mark of 10-4 or 11-3 over the next 14 games, combined with Philly playing at a sub-.400 level during this stretch.

Even in a perfect world, this seems too good to be true.

Mid-Range Clinching Date: Sept. 27

**The Phillies might be ready to wave the white flag by this date, especially if the above pitching trends with Arrieta, Elfin, Pivetta and Velasquez get even uglier against the Rockies' cavalcade of dynamic hitters.

On the flip side, the Braves will be in New York during that period, taking on a Mets team playing out the string.

**On the bright side, if Philly can avoid elimination for 24 more hours and get to the Atlanta series (Sept. 28-30) with a divisional deficit of three games or fewer ... the Phillies would have a fighting chance at pulling off a major coup.

Just don't expect it to happen. Rock-solid starting pitching still feeds the bulldog this time of year.

**In other words ... pencil us in for Sept. 27!

Last Possible Clinching Date: Sept. 30

**The only plausible scenario for Day 162: The Phillies get hot and also post a 5-1 head-to-head record against the Braves, beginning in late September.

**For this date to be relevant, outside of seeding for the National League postseason, the Braves would need a cumulative losing record against their final three sub-.500 foes (Giants, Mets, Nationals) and a bad head-to-head record against the Phillies (as mentioned above).

Plus, the red-hot Kevin Gausman likely wouldn't be a factor for Atlanta down the stretch ... which reeks of implausibility at this point.

In fact, check out the Braves rotation's stellar 30-day numbers:

Gausman—4-1, 1.91 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 34/9 K-BB, .162 opponents' batting average

Mike Foltynewicz—1.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 41/11 K-BB

Julio Teheran—1-0, 2.48 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 28/8 K-BB

Anibal Sanchez—0-2, 3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 31/8 K-BB

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