Recalculating the Atlanta Braves' playoff odds before their brutal road trip

ATLANTA—11Alive Sports offers a statistical and logistical breakdown of the Atlanta Braves and their mathematical odds of ending the franchise's five-year playoff drought.

Today's piece coincides with the Braves (45-34, 1st place in National League East) embarking on their toughest stretch of the season—a 15-game, 17-day odyssey against the wild-card contending Cardinals (42-37), powerhouse Yankees (52-26), National League-best Brewers (47-33), pitching-rich Blue Jays and Diamondbacks (47-34), the surprise leader of the NL West.

Looking ahead, we'll likely update this piece around the All-Star break. For what it's worth, Atlanta hits the midpoint of its season this Sunday (@ St. Louis).

NL WILD CARD RACE

On May 16, the defending National League champion Dodgers were mired in a 16-26 funk, with no apparent relief in sight, given the litany of crucial injuries (including Clayton Kershaw). And yet, somehow Los Angeles got off the proverbial mat and caught fire, winning 27 of its next 38 games.

Does this mean the Dodgers will keep rolling through September? Meh, judgment call. Only one starting pitcher has an ERA below 3.00 (Kershaw), and just one positional player has a batting average above .300.

That aside, the Dodgers' recent spurt bears an eerie resemblance to the 2013 campaign. On June 22 of that year, Los Angeles ranked dead-last in the NL West before getting ridiculously hot.

How hot? In short work, the Dodgers went from 30-42 at the end of June ... to capturing the division title by a whopping 11 games (92-70 overall).

It's a good reminder than anything can happen in this crazy game ... as long as you have good pitching.

Here's a capsule look at the National League's playoff contenders, while calculating the minimum expectations for claiming one of the two wild-card slots:

BREWERS

Skinny:The casual baseball fan not living in Wisconsin would have great difficulty naming anyone from the Brewers rotation. (No cheating!) And yet, Milwaukee seems to be in good shape for the playoffs, given the friendly schedule, strong bullpen (2.72 ERA, 121/29 K-BB) and aggressive batting lineup. The only knock (and it's a big one): The Brew Crew has a minus-20 run differential against the hated Cubs.

DIAMONDBACKS

Skinny: For my money, the Diamondbacks have the National League's best regular-season starting rotation—Zack Greinke (8-5, 3.41 ERA, 108/19 K-BB), Patrick Corbin (3.24 ERA, 129/27 K-BB), Robbie Ray (15-5, 2.89 ERA last year), Shelby Miller and Zack Godley (team-nigh nine wins). As a bonus, Arizona has 29 remaining outings against Colorado and San Diego. Boom!

BRAVES

Remaining Games Against Sub-.500 Teams: 33

CUBS

Skinny: For the final three weeks of the season (Sept. 10-30), the Cubs will leave the friendly city confines of Chicago just once (three-game trip to Arizona). This will likely put pressure on the other clubs to make a move before the trade deadline. In other words ... expect to see this club in the postseason.

PHILLIES

Skinny:Fifty-one remaining games against losing clubs? Jack ... freaking ... pot!

DODGERS

Remaining Games Against Sub-.500 Teams: 34

CARDINALS

Skinny: The next 30 days will crystallize the Cardinals' realistic chances of securing a wild-card slot. This stretch starts with this weekend's home set versus the Braves ... and ends with a home series against the Cubs. Everything else—minus a quick weekend stand with the surging Reds (July 13-15)—occurs on the road.

NATIONALS

Remaining Games Against Sub-.500 Teams: 42

GIANTS

Skinny:We were rather blunt about the Giants' prospects a few weeks ago: Madison Bumgarner must carry the shaky starting rotation from July to September. So far, so good on that front: In his last two starts, following a long injury rehab, Bumgarner (2-0 during that stretch) surrendered zero runs and allowed opposing batters to hit at a .100 clip.

ROCKIES

Skinny: The above number is not a typo. From today's date to Aug. 5, the Rockies will encounter 10 consecutive opponents with winning records; and from that point forward, Colorado draws only 10 games against sub-.500 competition. The lone saving grace: The Rockies have a winning record on the road this season (24-20).

PIRATES

Skinny: Frankly, I'm surprised the Pirates have gotten this far in the wild-card chase. If Pittsburgh holds any serious hopes of contending for the postseason, it must post a minimum record of 22-5 versus losing clubs. The remaining portion of the schedule offers a virtually nonexistent margin of error.

ANALYSIS

Since Major League Baseball added a fifth playoff team for each league in 2012, the average win total for the NL wild cards shakes out to 91 victories.

Consequently, the Braves are decent candidates for reaching the '91' figure. Of equal importance, here's what the non-division leaders would need to match the prerequisite of a 91-71 record.

Cardinals: 49-34 from this point forward

Dodgers: 48-34

Cubs: 47-36

Phillies: 48-35

Nationals: 50-33

Giants: 49-31

Rockies: 52-29

Pirates: 53-29

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

At 45-34, the Braves are currently on track for a division-high 92 wins. After that, the East victory estimates include 88 wins (Phillies), 84 wins (Nationals), 66 wins (Mets) and 62 wins (Marlins).

For the sake of round numbers, let's say Atlanta settles for 90 victories by season's end.

For Philadelphia to have a shot of capturing the division crown, it would require a finishing kick of 47-36 or better for the final 83 games; and for Washington, that projection subsequently involves a 49-34 finish.

Seems doable, right?

Well, for the month of June, the Philly pitchers owned bottom-4 rankings among National League clubs with ERA and opponents' batting average; and for the season, the Phillies have a cumulative run differential of minus-21 versus the East-leading Braves.

Washington's starting rotation has seemingly reached a breaking point, with Max Scherzer (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 165/27 K-BB) carrying a staff that's either slumping (Tanner Roark, Gio Gonzalez) or hurting (Stephen Strasburg, Jeremy Hellickson).

By all appearances, only a major pre-deadline acquisition can save the Nationals from falling off the map. In fact, it wouldn't be a grave shock if Washington GM Mike Rizzo at least considered trading Bryce Harper (free agent at season's end) before July 31.

Here are two more things to lament:

a) The Braves have a winning record against the other four clubs in the NL East (27-14 overall).

b) Atlanta has 12 remaining encounters with bottom-feeding Miami.

On the plus side for Philadelphia and Washington ...

**The Phillies have 51 remaining games against clubs with sub-.500 records—easily the highest tally of any National League playoff contender.

**Philadelphia has a legitimate chance to claim the NL East lead, prior to the All-Star break. Atlanta has 10 brutal road outings against St. Louis, New York (Yankees) and Milwaukee ... whereas the Phillies entertain the struggling Nationals at home this week, and then follow up with 13 consecutive outings against the Orioles, Mets and Marlins.

**The Nationals have an ideal stretch run for the last month. From Sept. 10-30, Washington gets six make-up-ground opportunities against Philly and Atlanta. After that, it's an easy finish with the Marlins (five games), Mets and Rockies.

For the imploding Mets, who are 21-45 since April 14 (32-46 overall), they would need an absurd finishing kick of 58-26 ... just to tie Atlanta, Philadelphia or Washington at the hypothetical '90' mark.

Fifty-eight wins over the next three months? That's not happening. Unless the Mets offense has some miracle cure for posting bottom-3 rankings (National League) with runs, hits, RBI, batting average, slugging rate and OPS.

The only remaining summertime drama for the Mets? Waiting to see which team produces the greatest trade package for 30-year-old pitcher Jacob deGrom (5-3, 1.69 ERA, 126/27 K-BB). With these insane numbers, the New York front office must get three elite prospects in return.

Otherwise, just fire the whole front office.

As stated two weeks ago, the 32-50 Marlins have a respectable shot of catching the Mets for fourth place in the NL East. That's the optimum hope at this point ... unless Miami makes an all-out push to secure the worst record in the majors and seize the No. 1 overall pick for next year's draft.

To win the division? From this point forward, the overmatched Marlins would need a range of 57-59 victories over the next three months. No way.

As such, even though the Braves aren't bludgeoning the middling NL East field, the odds of Atlanta capturing the division title remain strong. In the neighborhood of 63-66 percent.

And we'll know plenty more after the road excursion with the Cardinals, Yankees and Brewers.

PREDICTED FINISH

Nationals: 83-79