ATLANTA — At the time of today's writing, we know very little about the Atlanta Hawks' major plans for the summer.
Who will be the next head coach?
What draft slots will Atlanta end up with in Round 1?
Will the club convert the three first-round selections into trade capital for higher picks ... or the acquisition of a young veteran?
Who will the Hawks be chasing during unrestricted free agency?
For now, let's tackle the Hawks' highest selection of the June 21 draft. The club currently has the best odds for capturing the No. 4 overall pick; but given the craziness of previous NBA lottery drawings, Atlanta's range could shift wildly—going as high as No. 1 ... and dropping to seventh overall.
(In case you're wondering, the Hawks also have control of the 19th and 30th selections for Round 1; but none of these slots will be up for grabs for the May 15 lottery drawing.)
11Alive Sports offers a capsule look at five high-end prospects to consider at the No. 4 spot, should the Hawks maintain their odds status quo with the mathematicians.
C DEANDRE AYTON, ARIZONA
HEIGHT: 7'0
WEIGHT: 260 pounds
ATHLETICISM SCALE (5 maximum): 4.5
SKINNY: Some draft experts/college basketball analysts have compared Ayton to a young Hakeem Olajuwon, in terms of the supreme footwork and athleticism in the post. But that may be an impossible standard to live up to, given how Olajuwon remains the gold standard for quick feet when posting up and absurd explosion when guarding the rim.
Hence, the divide between Olajuwon (averaged 4.5 blocks per game in three years at the University of Houston) and Ayton (1.9 blocks), in the realm of demoralizing opposing shooters or penetrating attackers.
That aside, at 7-feet and 260 pounds, Ayton certainly carried himself like a projected No. 1 overall pick at Arizona, averaging 20.1 points, 11.6 rebounds per outing and notching 24 double-doubles as a freshman.
On the down side, in this age of three-point-shooting barrages and declining touches for centers, it's fair to wonder if Ayton would be a true game-changer with franchises that prioritize perimeter-based spread offenses?
In the best-case scenario, the Hawks would be getting someone in the mold of Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns or even Andre Drummond.
In a less fortunate scenario, we might be talking Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Enes Kanter or Meyers Leonard.
PF MARVIN BAGLEY, DUKE
HEIGHT: 6'11
WEIGHT: 235 pounds
ATHLETICISM SCALE (5 maximum): 4
SKINNY: Bagley, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, might be the most NBA-ready of the prospects in this listing, given his quick feet, terrific hands, great explosion, fluid movements, positional versatility and excellent knack for finishing around the rim; and in this small-ball era of NBA hoops, where sweet-shooting bigs are treated like gold, Bagley could be an ideal center for a run-and-gun lineup.
Now for the Debbie-Downer news: Bagley might never dominate the paint by sheer strength, and some NBA teams have a natural bias against left-handed shooters. That aside, if Bagley ends up as a cross between Derrick Favors and Sam Perkins, notable southpaws in NBA lore, the Hawks would likely be thrilled with this type of development.
SF JAREN JACKSON JR., MICHIGAN STATE
HEIGHT: 6'11
WEIGHT: 240 pounds
ATHLETICISM SCALE (5 maximum): 5
SKINNY: Jackson should be an All-Star someday and a candidate for a monster contract extension in about five years; but that doesn't mean he'll hit the ground running at the next level, either.
On the plus side at Michigan State, Jackson was a formidable one-on-one defender, amazing with weakside-help defense and above-average when shooting from long distance.
The deficiencies were easy to identify, as well, in terms of Jackson's struggles with getting to the rim and consistently finding his offensive spots in a half-court setting.
Would another year of college ball have benefited Jackson's offensive polish, especially with Miles Bridges off to the pros? Probably. But Jackson can also be forgiven for wanting to launch his NBA clock sooner than later, given his immense physical skills and willingness to put the team first when on the court.
Bottom line: Jackson would be an ideal fit with the rebuilding Hawks. He could learn on the fly from Atlanta's established wings (Taurean Prince, Deande' Bembry), without the pressure of living up to sky-high expectations on Day 1.
Of course, it shouldn't take Jackson long to grasp the defensive concepts at the NBA level, especially back-end protection. He'll be an aggressive teammate's best friend in no time.
PG LUKA DONCIC, SLOVENIA
HEIGHT: 6'8
WEIGHT: 225 pounds
ATHLETICISM SCALE (5 maximum): 3.5
SKINNY: Doncic evokes comparisons to San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili, which can be viewed in positive and negative lights.
On the plus front, the Hawks would be getting a gifted passer, good shooter, productive scorer and someone with great basketball intellect.
On the down side, Atlanta would likely bypass a prospect with more physical pizzazz, or greater box-office appeal. Plus, as 11Alive Sports wrote last week, Doncic currently has no plans to work out for NBA clubs prior to the draft, given his busy playing schedule with Real Madrid (Euroleague).
If this stance holds true over the next month, the Hawks would essentially invest a high pick on a player who's apparently happy with keeping NBA scouts and general managers at arm's length. If you're an experienced GM with a sublime track record of success, perhaps Doncic's pre-draft shell game won't be problematic.
However, for an up-and-comer like Hawks GM Travis Schlenk, that's a major risk to take at the top of the draft.
PG TRAE YOUNG, OKLAHOMA
HEIGHT: 6'2
WEIGHT: 180 pounds
ATHLETICISM SCALE (5 maximum): 3.5
SKINNY: Let's be honest: If Stephen Curry never evolves into a two-time MVP and arguably the greatest long-range shooter in NBA history, we're probably not discussing the undersized Young as a top-four draft selection.
(Remember Curry against Gonzaga in the NCAA tourney?)
However, if Young redoubtably stands as the closest thing to Curry among the next wave of NBA prospects, the Hawks must consider the business impact of drafting him—especially if the current ownership (led by Tony Ressler) has grand designs on regularly selling out the refurbished Philips Arena.
In other words, the likes of Luca Doncic, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, Michael Porter, Jaren Jackson and Mo Bamba may be stronger long-term prospects, but the Hawks cannot afford the risk of passing on a unique talent like Young—assuming he resembles the Young who notched nine games of 32 points or more in a two-month span last season ... before hitting the proverbial wall in the Sooners' final month of action.
Just like Stephen Curry, Young (36-percent shooter from beyond the arc at Oklahoma) has unlimited firing range, along with great shot-making creativity around the basket.
