11Alive Sports offers up seven solid reasons why Atlanta Falcons fans shouldn't throw in the proverbial towel just yet, regarding the team's playoff outlook.
Yes, Sunday's loss to the improving, but bottom-feeding Browns (5-47-1 in their last 53 games) was surprising and somewhat embarrassing; and yes, the defeat drastically cut into the Falcons' margin of error for the final seven weeks.
But Atlanta's current status hardly rates as an untenable situation. Here's why:
1. Atlanta has the most ideal setup among the teams with four or fewer seasonal victories
A wise NFC head coach once quipped about the value of divisional or conference wins/losses, compared to games outside the conference.
"If I'm going 11-5 or 10-6 every year, please let me be 0-4 against the AFC."
The joke elicited laughter from the media horde; but there was also a firm message mixed in with the comedy.
NFL teams might only have the opportunity for one win, one loss or maybe a tie every weekend, but that doesn't necessarily mean all outcomes carry equal weight.
Take the Falcons' progress to date. Yes, they're 0-3 against the rough-and-tumble AFC North (Steelers, Bengals, Browns); but on the flip side, Atlanta owns a 4-2 mark against NFC teams.
As such, presuming a strong finish (7-0, 6-1, 5-2), it would be difficult for the Falcons to be pinched out of playoff consideration–short of the Panthers, Saints and Vikings playing .750 ball from this point forward.
How does this work?
Well, if the Falcons post a 10-6 or 9-7 record by season's end, they'll likely have the upper hand with numerous conference or divisional tiebreakers.
In fact, let's say the Falcons go 9-7 with losses to the Ravens and Saints: Under this hypothetical, Atlanta would own a rock-solid conference mark of 9-3 ... and likely crush anyone with the same overall record.
The only killer would be a head-to-head tiebreaker with Philly. In that scenario, the Eagles (Week 1 victory) would rule over the Falcons.
2. The Falcons control their own destiny over every other Wild Card #2 contender, except the Vikings
Among the cluster of 4-5 teams (Falcons, Seahawks, Cowboys, Eagles), Atlanta possesses the greater intra-conference record, at 4-2.
And when talking about the 4-4-1 Packers, the Falcons could take care of that battle by knocking off Green Bay on Dec. 9 (at Lambeau Field) and then running the table from this point forward.
Or, at least maintain the same edges over the next seven weeks.
Which brings us to this: If you're a Falcons fan, and seek guidance with rooting for either the Packers or Seahawks on Thursday night, go with Seattle.
In the long run, Atlanta could only rely on a conference-tiebreaker edge with Seattle, in the event of a seasonal tie. However, in the case of the Packers, the Falcons could potentially have the head-to-head tiebreaker in Week 14.
NFC STANDINGS
1. Rams (9-1)
2. Saints (8-1)
3. Bears (6-3)
4. Redskins (6-3)
5. Panthers (6-3 ... Wild Card #1)
6. Vikings (5-3-1 ... Wild Card #2)
____
7. Packers (4-4-1)
8. Falcons (4-5)
9. Seahawks (4-5)
10. Cowboys (4-5)
11. Eagles (4-5)
3. On paper, Minnesota's finishing schedule has more obstacles than Atlanta's closing slate
At 5-3-1, the Vikings obviously have a wider margin of error than the Falcons, Packers, Seahawks, Cowboys and Eagles.
However, the schedule might balance this advantage out, sooner than later.
Check out Minnesota's final stand: Road games with Chicago, New England, Seattle, Detroit ... and home outings with the Packers, Dolphins and Bears.
If you were a Vegas handicapper for the seven matchups, the Vikings would likely be underdogs for three of the four roadies (Detroit being the exception) and perhaps one of the three home games at US Bank Stadium.
Using that logic, Minnesota could have a maximum-finish expectancy of 9-6-1 ... or maybe 8-7-1.
Could the Falcons, in turn, respond with a 10-6 or 9-7 finish?
Here's the breakdown, using a subjective scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high) with win probability:
vs. Dallas – 4 (MUST WIN)
@ New Orleans – 2
vs. Baltimore – 3
@ Green Bay – 4 (MUST WIN)
vs. Arizona – 5 (MUST WIN)
@ Carolina – 2 (MUST WIN)
@ Tampa Bay -- 4
4. The 6-3 Panthers aren't automatic shoo-ins for the wild card
Of Carolina's final seven games, the club might only be prohibitive favorites twice, with both outings coming on the road (Detroit, Tampa Bay).
There's also the matter of encountering the Saints twice and Falcons once in the season's final three weeks.
Which begs the question: Should Falcons fans be cheering for the Saints or Panthers when the clubs meet twice in December?
Two weeks ago, when the division title was still within reach, it would have been proper to cheer for Carolina to sweep the series, as a means of bringing the red-hot Saints back to the pack.
Fast forward to the present: You have a better chance of predicting today's Daily 4 lottery numbers ... than the odds of the Saints (8-1) and Falcons both tying at 11-5 by season's end.
Consequently, New Orleans must provide help to Atlanta's wild-card chances by sweeping Carolina.
At the very least, a split would be required.
5. Linebacker Deion Jones' return from in-season injured reserve should bolster defense
From Weeks 2-10, there were three primary pieces missing from last year's stout defense, when the Falcons owned top-10 rankings with fumbles recovered (7th), points allowed (8th) and yards surrendered per game (9th):
Keanu Neal, Dontari Poe and the aforementioned Jones.
Neal (season-ending knee injury) and Poe (signed with the Patriots) aren't coming back this season, but Jones (activated Monday) could be a fixture with the club very soon, perhaps for Thanksgiving Night (@ Saints).
Last season, Jones accounted for 138 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, three interceptions and one sack, while earning a high score with Pro Football Reference's famed Value Chart.
6. The Falcons offense has overwhelmed every foe this season
This may seem like an odd thing to write, just 48 hours after Atlanta managed only 16 points against the Cleveland defense. However, the numbers validate the above declaration:
**Since Week 2, the Falcons have averaged 423 yards in total offense, with only one outing accounting for less than 375 yards.
By comparison, the Saints own the NFL's highest-scoring offense (36.7 points per game) but have averaged "only" 390 yards over this eight-game span.
**Atlanta ranks 8th overall in points per game (27.1); but among the NFC contenders, only the Rams and Saints have produced more outings of 30-plus points than the Falcons (five).
**Falcons wideout Julio Jones owns absurd averages of 8.3 catches, 119 yards and 0.5 touchdowns over the last four games; and during this supreme stretch, Jones boasts a catch-to-target ratio of 70.2 percent.
7. Recent NFL history dictates that 4-5 starts aren't a death knell for reaching the postseason
Let's finish on a hopeful note.
Since 1992, 13 NFL teams have rallied from nine-game holes (4-5 or 3-6) to make the playoffs.
The list includes:
1992 Chargers (only NFL team to reach postseason after an 0-4 start)
1994 Patriots
1995 Lions
1996 Jaguars (reached the AFC title game that year)
2002 Jets
2003 Packers
2008 Chargers (4-8 headed into the month of December)
2009 Jets (advanced to AFC title game)
2011 Broncos
2012 Redskins
2013 Chargers
2014 Panthers
2016 Packers
