11Alive Sports offers a dry run of expectations when holding the No. 7 draft slot in 12-team drafts (PPR scoring), working exclusively off an ESPN.com mock from July 3.
For this 16-round draft, with two tailbacks, two wide receivers and a RB/WR flex as starters, I initially planned to adopt the time-tested '4-2-1 strategy' in PPR leagues, calling for four high-end receivers, two targets-friendly tailbacks and either a top-seven quarterback or top-five tight end for the first seven rounds.
However, that plan went out of the window ... once my preferred quarterback got scooped up ahead of my slot in Round 7.
So, as a reflex, we adjusted on the fly.
Two quick notes:
1) The first six picks in Round 1 (in order): Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Antonio Brown, Ezekiel Elliott.
2) Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (three-game suspension to start the season) wasn't drafted at all. This can be explained in two ways:
a) There's incredible depth at quarterback with 12-team leagues.
b) My fellow fantasy general managers apparently don't have a lot of faith in Winston staying healthy for Weeks 4-14, even though he started all 32 games over his first two NFL seasons.
ROUND 1 (Pick 7)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
Option #2: RB Kareem Hunt, Chiefs
Option #3: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Giants
BREAKDOWN
Hopkins rolled for 96 catches, 1,378 yards and an NFL-best 13 touchdowns last year, even though transformative rookie Deshaun Watson started only six games.
Here's another fun stat from 2017: Hopkins notched double-digit targets and/or one touchdown 15 times.
Now for the tricky part: With Hopkins in the fold, I will consciously be seeking out the QB Watson sometime in Round 6 or 7, given my PPR-based obsession with handcuffing quarterbacks to elite-level wideouts.
As a Plan B, there's not much downside to grabbing Hunt (1,782 total yards, 11 TDs in 2017) at the mid-to-late point of Round 1. The reigning NFL rushing champ (1,327 yards) notched 100 total yards and/or one touchdown in his first seven games ... and then repeated the feat in his final four regular-season outings.
ROUND 2 (Pick 18)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons
Option #2: RB Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Option #3: RB LeSean McCoy, Bills
BREAKDOWN
Freeman owns supreme averages of 1,452 total yards and eight touchdowns over the last three seasons. During this prolific span, the Florida State product also averaged 54 catches and 70 targets per year.
As a Plan B, McCaffrey would have been an easy justification, as well.
Why is that? C-Mac's 80 catches and 113 targets from last year should be a reasonable starting point for this season, despite the O-coordinator change from Mike Shula to Norv Turner.
Of his final 15 games, McCaffrey accounted for five catches or one touchdown 13 different times—highlighted by the six-catch, 117-yard, one-TD effort against the Saints in the wild-card round.
ROUND 3 (Pick 31)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
Option #2: RB Jerick McKinnon, 49ers
Option #3: WR Jarvis Landry, Browns
BREAKDOWN
For his second season, Hill (75 catches, 1,183 yards, 7 TDs) proved that he was more than just an AFC version of Cordarrelle Patterson (good kick returner/substandard receiver).
In a nutshell:
**Of Hill's 15 games in 2017, he rolled for seven catches, 70-plus yards and/or one touchdown 10 times.
**The West Alabama product collected seven or more targets eight times.
**Hill likely carried fantasy owners to victory three times last year: Week 1 (7 catches, 133 yards, 1 TD), Week 7 (6 catches, 125 yards, 1 TD) and Week 13 (6 catches, 185 yards, 2 TDs).
This should be an absolute prerequisite for Round 1-3 prospects.
ROUND 4 (Pick 42)—MOTIVE: Best wideout available
Option #1: WR Jarvis Landry, Browns
Option #2: WR Golden Tate, Lions
Option #3: WR Amari Cooper, Raiders
BREAKDOWN
Landry, the only NFL receiver in history to collect 400 catches over his inaugural four seasons, should do just fine in the Browns offense (led by O-coordinator Todd Haley); and for everyone who thinks he'll struggle mightily in Cleveland, here's something to lament:
During Landry's tenure in Miami, the Dolphins never ranked above 21st in scoring ... and yet, the LSU product found the end zone nine times last year.
The only historical worry: Landry has developed a curious track record of only amassing 100-plus catches in odd-numbered years.
ROUND 5 (Pick 55)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: RB Lamar Miller, Texans
Option #2: WR Brandin Cooks, Rams
Option #3: TE Greg Olsen, Panthers
BREAKDOWN
If given the chance for a do-over, I might have sided with Brandin Cooks at this slot, even though he'd be my fourth receiver on the depth chart.
The rationale: In just a few days of mock drafting, I already know that Jared Goff (my No. 8-ranked quarterback) will be there in the latter rounds. As such, it would be cool to have the Goff-Cooks handcuff, whenever Goff draws a fantasy start.
With the Saints and Patriots (2015-17), Cooks enjoyed a stealth three-year average of 76 catches, 1,131 yards and eight touchdowns; and charting last season alone, the Oregon State star amassed nine outings of 80 receiving yards and/or one touchdown.
It's been said many times: With PPR leagues, you can never have enough superstar talent.
As for my actual choice, Miller (four-year average: 1,280 total yards, 8 TDs) stands firm as my 20th-ranked running back, even if he's not the sexiest playmaker in the bunch.
ROUND 6 (Pick 66)—MOTIVE: Best wide receiver or quarterback
Option #1: WR Devin Funchess, Panthers
Option #2: WR Corey Davis, Titans
Option #3: QB Deshaun Watson, Texans
BREAKDOWN
This is why mock drafting should be a weekly necessity for hard-core fantasy players:
I could have easily grabbed Watson in Round 6; but given how this is a risk-free trial experience, I just had to know if my QB-WR handcuff would be there in Round 7.
On this day, I got burned; but it's also a good lesson for the future: As soon as Cam Newton and Carson Wentz come flying off the board ... Watson's a goner, too (in a good way).
ROUND 7 (Pick 79)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: RB Kerryon Johnson, Lions
Option #2: WR Kelvin Benjamin, Bills
Option #3: RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons
BREAKDOWN
I'll keep this one short and sweet:
Barring injury, Kerryon Johnson (1,585 total yard, 20 TDs with Auburn last year) will soon become the next Billy Sims in Lions lore.
He's a gifted power runner with quick feet, great explosion and a Toucan Sam-like nose for the end zone.
Perhaps someone in the modern-day mold of David Johnson.
ROUND 8 (Pick 90)—MOTIVE: Best tailback or tight end available
Option #1: RB Carlos Hyde, Browns
Option #2: TE Jimmy Graham, Packers
Option #3: TE Trey Burton, Bears
ROUND 9 (Pick 103)—MOTIVE: Best wide receiver or tailback
Option #1: WR Sterling Shepard, Giants
Option #2: WR Marqise Lee, Jaguars
Option #3: RB Jamaal Williams, Packers
BREAKDOWN
The Shepard positives are easy to point out:
Despite last year's offensive debacle (only 59 catches/2 TDs), the Oklahoma product still produced three elite-level outings for the Giants—seven catches, 133 yards, one TD vs. Philly (Week 3), 11 catches, 142 yards at. San Francisco (Week 10) and 11 catches, 139 yards and one TD at Philly (Week 16).
ROUND 10 (Pick 114)—MOTIVE: Best quarterback available
Option #1: QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Option #2: QB Jared Goff, Rams
Option #3: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
BREAKDOWN
The fantasy perception of Stafford has inexplicably changed over the years. Yes, he might not be the next Dan Marino ... but at the very least, he's the modern-day version of Jim Kelly or Warren Moon.
No shame in that.
I'd easily accept a Kelly or Moon-like starter on my fantasy squad. Stafford boasts seven consecutive campaigns of 4,000 yards passing; and during that stretch, the UGA product averaged 4,564 yards passing and 30 touchdowns.
Also, when charting his final 11 games last year, Stafford stealthily averaged 303 yards passing and two TDs.
ROUND 11 (Pick 127)—MOTIVE: Best backup QB available
Option #1: QB Jared Goff, Rams
Option #2: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
Option #3: QB Derek Carr, Raiders
ROUND 12 (Pick 138)—MOTIVE: Best defense available
Option #1: D/ST Philadelphia Eagles
Option #2: D/ST Minnesota Vikings
Option #3: D/ST Los Angeles Rams
ROUND 13 (Pick 151)—MOTIVE: Best tight end available
Option #1: TE David Njoku, Browns
Option #2: TE Cameron Brate, Buccaneers
ROUND 14 (Pick 162)—MOTIVE: Best kicker available
Option #1: PK Harrison Butker, Chiefs
Option #2: PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots<>
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BREAKDOWN
Butker should have another great year with the Chiefs, cleaning up the unfinished drives involving Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt.
Last year, the Georgia Tech alum ranked second in field goals made; and from a game-to-game perspective, Butker crushed three or more field goals eight times.
ROUND 15 (Pick 175)—MOTIVE: Best tailback with upside
Option #1: RB Corey Clement, Eagles
Option #2: RB Doug Martin, Raiders
Option #3: RB C.J. Anderson, Panthers
ROUND 16 (Pick 186)—MOTIVE: Best playmaker available
Option #1: WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Option #2: WR Dede Westbrook, Jaguars
BREAKDOWN
I'd be willing to bet Godwin leapfrogs DeSean Jackson on the Bucs' pecking order of receivers this season.
There was nothing extraordinary about his rookie numbers (26 catches, 442 yards, 1 TD) ... but the finishing kick certainly showed promise.
For his final four games, he averaged four catches, 74 yards and 0.3 touchdowns; and for the season finale, Godwin became Tampa Bay's featured performer, to the tune of seven receptions, 12 targets, 111 yards and one score.
Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and 2015 Cynopsis Media award winner for "Sports Blog Of The Year," has previously served as the lead fantasy analyst for Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports South, Bleacher Report and Fanball.com.
