ATLANTA — Another year, another season of the Braves getting slighted. At least in the projections.
The Player Empirical Comparison Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) has projected that the New York Mets will win the NL East division following their plethora of offseason moves. According to its website, the (PECOTA) takes a player’s performance from last year and tries to project the performance for the upcoming season.
The Braves hardly ever place well in this projection. But honestly, it means nothing.
“It accounts more for regression than progression. It is assuming that Marcell Ozuna will be worse this year, which he probably will be,” Dylan Short, host of the Locked On Braves podcast said. “It is assuming Travis d’Arnaud will be worse, and he probably will be, and that is more on how insane their 2020 seasons were. Freddie Freeman is probably going to regress a bit.”
When you're the MVP of the league one season, regression seems inevitable.
“On the flip side of that, you have players that are going to progress and that is absolutely a factor in this too,” Short said. “If you are a Braves fan and are mad about the PECOTA projections, I would not even waste my time getting upset about it because it has never mattered before."
Why else are the Braves not performing well in the projections? Find out on today's episode of Locked On Braves.