CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Nap time is over - the Atlantic is waking up! The National Hurricane Center has given a tropical wave a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days. Right now this is something to watch, not worry about.
A plume of Saharan Dust is currently sitting in the Atlantic as well, which makes the air drier and helps to limit tropical development.
The wave has moved off the African coast and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Even though the Saharan dust is present over a large portion of the Atlantic, environmental conditions look to be conducive for tropical development - specifically, there doesn't seem to be a lot of wind shear expected in the area the wave is forecast to trek. (There's some wind shear, but not a significant amount that would adversely impact tropical development.)
Sea surface temperatures in this area are between 26-30°C (about 79-86°F), plenty warm for tropical development. The warmer the water, the more energy a tropical system can tap into and draw from. The NHC says that a tropical depression could form early to mid-week next week.
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season has been relatively quiet, especially since we're expecting an above-average year of tropical activity. So far, we've been "average," with only three named storms as of August 7.
This area of interest signals that the Atlantic is "waking up." We're well on our way to the climatological peak of hurricane season (September 10), so it's important to be prepared and stay updated with our forecasts.
RELATED: 2022 Hurricane Guide: Download Now
Tropical activity tends to pick up in August, with longer-track storms developing off of the west African coast. Development is likely as tropical waves approach the Leeward Islands. Longer tracks can take these storms into the Gulf, along the Florida Coast, and up the East Coast.
2022 KIII Hurricane Season Forecast
2022 NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast
Hurricane Season runs from June 1 - November 30, peaking on September 10.