ATLANTA -- The Braves' front office could have a major dilemma on their hands over the next 60 days, regarding the fate of starting pitcher Julio Teheran.
The club's strategic options for Teheran basically break down three ways:
1) Trade Teheran on or before the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31, as a means of maximizing the pitcher's time under contractual control—covering half of 2018, all of 2019 and a team option for 2020.
2) Wait until the winter months to deal Teheran, since it would presumably involve more interested parties than a standard July trade deadline.
3) Hold onto Teheran for the foreseeable future, essentially kicking the decision-making can down the road.
The only near-certainty at this point: Teheran won't be wearing a Braves uniform in 2020. This prediction has little to do with the pitcher's sublime talents ... and everything to do with Atlanta perhaps possessing the deepest and most talented army of pitching prospects in the minors.
And make no mistake, this blue wave of high-upside Braves pitchers will be arriving to SunTrust Park, sooner than later.
CONTRACT STATUS
When Teheran, now 27, inked a team-friendly extension four years ago ($32.4 million from 2014-19, with a $12 million team option for 2020), the Braves were in win-now mode at the major-league level, boasting a young core of Freddie Freeman, Evan Gattis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Melvin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Wood and Mike Minor that would seemingly compete for multiple pennants over a five-year span.
But things changed on the fly after the club floundered midway through the 2014 season and ended up with a disappointing 79-83 mark—or 17 fewer wins than the previous year.
A few months later, new team president John Hart replaced general manager Frank Wren; and within a few weeks, Hart began to deconstruct the franchise's talent pool from the top down, trading the likes of Kimbrel, Heyward, Gattis, Simmons, Wood and Justin Upton for a slew of top prospects.
It also meant that Teheran would quickly vault from no-pressure youngster to the recognized 'ace' of the Atlanta rotation.
Teheran handled the increased responsibilities with aplomb, serving as the only Braves pitcher in 2015 to register double-digit victories. In 2016, Teheran enjoyed his finest sabermetric-friendly year, in terms of ERA (3.21), K-BB ratio (167/41), WHIP (1.05), K/9 rate (8.0) and FIP (3.69); and the following season, Teheran clinched his fifth consecutive year of logging 30 or more starts and 180-plus innings.
What about the present? According to FanGraphs.com, a popular tracking site for baseball analytics, Teheran's 2018 fastball has incurred a slight dip in velocity, compared to the previous two Aprils. In the old days, Teheran's heater would routinely touch the mid-90s in the early months; but now, for whatever reason, the pitcher has been operating with a fastball that's consistently in the low 90s.
Teheran was shaky in his first two starts for 2018, walking six batters and cumulatively allowing nine earned runs; but things have changed for the better since April 9: For the 29 subsequent innings (five starts), Teheran boasts the following marks: Two wins, 1.86 ERA, .178 opponents' batting average, .265 opponents' on-base percentage and 30/12 K-BB rate.
THE INEVITABLE PROSPECT WAVE
When outfielder Ronald Acuna earned a presumably permanent promotion to the big leagues in late April, the vacuum effect of reshuffling the top slots for the Braves' listing of elite-level prospects included only six pitchers—Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, Ian Anderson, Kolby Allard, Max Fried and Mike Soroka, who made his major-league debut last week (victory against the Mets).
Heading into the season, Wright (No. 28 overall), Soroka (#29), Gohara (#47), Anderson (#49), Allard (#56) and Fried (#84) all cracked the MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects listing.
Roles can certainly change over the next few years, but all six hurlers have been working as starters in the minors.
**Wright (52/22 K-BB rate, 48 total innings) was the fifth overall pick in last year's draft.
**Gohara, who opened this season with the parent club, signed with the Braves at the tender age of 16. His cumulative marks after six seasons in the minors: 3.87 ERA and 390/150 K-BB rate.
**A top-3 pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, the 20-year-old Anderson has been deflating hitters in the Florida State League, to the tune of a 2.81 ERA and 31/12 K-BB rate.
**Allard has enjoyed a strong first month with Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 2.12 ERA over six starts.
**And last but not least, Soroka notched stellar numbers during his three-plus seasons in the minors—2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 311/76 K-BB rate over 65 appearances (63 starts).
At the Triple-A level this season, Soroka had been a dominant figure against older competition, carving out a 2-0 record, 1.99 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 24/5 K-BB rate.
Last week, Soroka became just the sixth Braves pitcher since 1987 to start a major-league game at/before the age threshold of 21 years, 145 days. The other arms on this exclusive list: Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, along with Teheran, Gohara and Steve Avery.
TEHERAN'S MARKET COMPETITION
The pennant-contending teams in need of veteran pitchers, via trade, might be willing to overpay for the quartet of Teheran, Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Cole Hamels (Rangers) and Michael Fulmer (Tigers), given the dearth of name-brand arms available at the deadline; and of this listing, only Hamels (3.94 ERA, 52/18 K-BB rate in 2018) seems like a relocation lock for late July.
As for Teheran's market, everyone remembers how Justin Verlander dominated the opposition last year after being traded to Houston on Aug. 31 (waiver deadline), going 5-0 in September and then guiding the Astros to their first world championship. For that last-minute trade, Detroit received pitcher Franklin Perez (Tigers' No. 1 prospect), catcher Jake Rogers (No. 5 prospect) and outfielder Daz Cameron (No. 9 prospect).
But here's the deal: With the Tigers last year, Verlander tallied good, but hardly elite marks of a 10-8 record, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 ERA and 176/67 K-BB rate.
Factoring in his last five starts, Teheran could be a similarly stellar trade piece for the Braves, especially since he's eight years younger than Verlander.
Of course, all of this will be moot if the Braves are still occupying the National League East penthouse before Aug. 1. In that scenario, there would be nil motivation to trade a surging Teheran—short of landing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in an astounding swap with the Blue Jays (don't hold your breath).
You might have heard about Guerrero. He's apparently the infield equivalent to his Hall of Fame-bound father ... and Ronald Acuna.
