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Analysis: Four key takeaways from the Braves' rain-shortened series with Cubs

Ozzie Albies and the first-place Braves should be season-long contenders for the National League East title, thanks to prodigious hitting, a productive bullpen and judicious choices regarding the hot-and-cold starting rotation.

ATLANTA—Here are four detailed Braves takeaways from the rain-shortened, multiple-city series with the Cubs (one makeup at Wrigley, one rainout at SunTrust Park), while assessing Atlanta's chances of capturing its first National League East title since 2013.

1. Mark it down: Ozzie Albies will be a shoo-in for starting the MLB All-Star Game

At this moment, Albies boasts seven top-3 rankings among National League second basemen—1st in runs (40), 1st in hits, 1st in doubles, 1st in homers (13), 2nd in RBI (trailing only the Cubs' Javier Baez), 2nd in OPS (but first among regular starters) and 3rd in steals.

As such, you'd be hard-pressed to find another major leaguer who's experiencing more domination among his positional brethren. From a subjective viewpoint, Albies would also rank as the Braves' Most Valuable Player after 40-plus games.

Now for the sobering part of this glowing endorsement: In four minor-league seasons (2014-17), Albies clubbed only 16 cumulative homers, or three more than he's crushed in the first seven weeks of the MLB season; and upon reviewing YouTube footage of Albies from the days in Single-A, Double-A, Triple-A ... it's not like his build has increased by monumental levels.

That suggests a power regression to the mean in subsequent months, although Albies' seasonal on-base percentage (.320) is actually 19 points lower than his career OBP in the minors. What's more, he might even be a candidate for 25 steals by season's end, keeping pace with his trend of previous years.

As for Albies' competition for the All-Star Game at Nationals Park, the only other candidate would be the Mets' Asdrubal Cabrera (6 HR, 24 RBI, .320 batting, .320 OBP, .906 OPS); but even that's a stretch when factoring in the following numbers:

Since 2011, Cabrera has enjoyed two seasons of 20-plus homers ... but zero occurrences of batting .300 or higher.

2. Soon, there won't be many sports gamblers raking in millions from daily baseball betting

Now that the Supreme Court has opened the door for sports gambling potentially hitting all 50 states, it's fair to ask how this landmark ruling will affect baseball betting—from an individual player's perspective?

I can see informed gamblers making decent money off starting pitchers, since the elite-level hurlers tend to be great 3-4 times a month ... just like the eminently replaceable assets tend to be borderline awful three times per month.

But in the case of predicting hitting success on a daily basis, it has all the makings (trappings?) of a sucker's bet, with no reasonable path to consistent success.

Take these Braves, for example:

**Since May 2, outfielder Ender Inciarte (.264 seasonal average) has collected six games of multiple hits ... and yet, his batting average has plunged 18 points from that date.

**Since May 3, first baseman Freddie Freeman has accounted for zero or one hit 10 times in a 13-game span. And yet, during this seemingly sluggish stretch, Freeman racked up four homers, 10 RBI, two steals, nine runs and an otherworldly on-base percentage of .411 ... while raising his seasonal batting tally three points.

My advice: America, stick to football betting. It remains the easiest play of the four major sports.

Relatively speaking, of course.

3. It's fair to wonder if any Braves starting pitcher will log a complete game this year

Gape Kapler manages the Phillies, and not the Braves. Correct?

Back in spring training, Kapler garnered a lot of attention from analytics-friendly and old-school haters of sabermetrics regarding his very-public plan of liberally using the bullpen in the middle innings—regardless of how the starters were faring, due to the new-school approach of avoiding three full spins of the opposing batting lineup.

And yet, it's the Braves who have been aggressively shuffling through the relievers in the middle innings, routinely forsaking starter stamina for seemingly ideal bullpen matchups.

Check out the following nuggets involving the Braves' top-four starters (innings-wise):

Julio Teheran

Stats: 3.49 ERA, 43/21 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP

Notables: Only two outings of at least seven innings ... Six outings of 90-plus pitches.

Mike Foltynewicz

Stats: 2.87 ERA, 57/24 K-BB, 1.34 WHIP

Notables: Didn't get to the 6th inning (recording at least one out) in seven of nine outings ... Eight outings of 90-plus pitches.

Sean Newcomb

Stats: 2.51 ERA, 54/22 K-BB, 1.16 WHIP

Notables: Just one outing of seven innings ... At least 89 pitches for all seven outings.

Brandon McCarthy

Stats: 5.05 ERA, 38/17 K-BB, 1.64 WHIP

Notables: Zero outings of six-plus innings ... Zero outings of four-plus walks ... Surrendered double-digit hits in back-to-back outings last week (vs. Giants, @ Marlins).

Note: Braves rookie Mike Soroka, the fifth pitcher in the rotation, has been placed on the 10-day disabled list (mild shoulder strain).

A few deductions about the above information:

a) Braves skipper Brian Snitker can afford to keep the starters' innings down, given the bullpen's current success. Through Thursday, Atlanta relievers own solid rankings in the NL: 1st in homers allowed (in a good way), 4th in opponents' batting average, 6th with innings pitched, 6th in strikeouts and 7th in wins.

b) Last year's world champions (Astros) posted just one complete game during the regular season; and the 2015 champs (Royals) logged only two for that title-winning campaign. In fact, of the last five completed seasons (2013-17), only the 2014 Giants accounted for more than five complete games (8) ... and four of the marathon outings came from Madison Bumgarner.

4. The next 25 games should determine if the Braves will be true contenders by season's end

Atlanta will encounter seven different opponents through June 13—New York Mets (seven games), San Diego (three), Washington (three), Boston (three), Miami (three), Philadelphia (three) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (three).

Of that group, three teams have a 'plus differential' of six or more wins (Nationals, Red Sox, Phillies) and three clubs have a negative differential of nine or more losses (Dodgers, Marlins, Padres).

On paper, this presents the Braves with a golden chance to go 11-7 or 12-6 against the parenthetical franchises in this paragraph, totaling 18 games.

As for the seven upcoming outings with New York ... since April 19, the Braves own a 40-14 edge with head-to-head runs over a six-game span, with Atlanta claiming victory five times; and among NL clubs, the Mets' starters currently rank 13th in victories, 12th in ERA and 13th in opponents' batting average.

Hardly the recipe for a major turnaround. The way things are progressing, the East battle will remain a three-horse race among the Braves (26-16), Phillies (24-16) and Nationals (24-18).

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