Century-long curses. Even-year magic. High drama in Gotham. The National League will not lack for narratives - metaphysical or otherwise - in a year where all but a handful of clubs have a chance to emerge with the pennant. USA TODAY Sports breaks down how 2016 should shake out:
NL East
Pivotal player: Matt Harvey. He’s a horse when healthy, but injuries and drama seem to follow him. The latest scare was a blood clot in his bladder. With fellow hard throwers Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard behind him, the Mets may have the majors’ best rotation if Harvey is ready to lead it.
Kid in play: Lucas Giolito. The Washington Nationals’ No. 1 prospect will begin the season in the minors, but he’s bound to get called up sooner than later. The 6-6 right-hander made an impression in the spring and just needs a bit more seasoning to help a rotation with some question marks at the back end.
Pure fantasy: Maikel Franco, Phillies. The third baseman had his his 2015 season cut short by a broken wrist. But up to that point, he hardly looked overmatched for a rookie – hitting .280 with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in basically half a season (304 at-bats). This spring he looks fully recovered, leading the majors in both home runs (8) and RBI (20). While spring training stats can be deceiving, Franco has done most of his damage against MLB-quality pitchers.
One crazy scenario: The favored Mets and Nationals falter early on, allowing the Miami Marlins to make noise and turn the division into a three-team race. With a healthy Giancarlo Stanton anchoring the lineup, the Marlins become an offensive force that can score through the longball or relying on the speed of Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich. Their pitching behind Jose Fernandez improves with the addition of Wei-Yin Chen.
The likeliest scenario: The Nationals and Mets battle it out for division supremacy all season long, beating up on the rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. Bryce Harper puts up monster numbers once again, but the Mets benefit from having Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto for a full season, in addition to new second baseman Neil Walker. In the end, the team with the most productive rotation prevails.
Projected order of finish (based on USA TODAY Sports preseason power rankings): Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Braves, Phillies.
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NL Central
Pivotal player: Closer Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs. The Cubs can start renting out Wrigleyville rooftops in October, but everything could go up in smoke if Rondon struggles. He caused heart palpitations in camp when he gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs in 1 2/3 innings in back-to-back appearances only to settle down. He proved he can do the job with 59 saves the past two seasons, but the spotlight will be on him more than ever.
Kid in play: Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals. Just when you thought the Cardinals were running out of bullets. Oh, Reyes won’t show up in your box scores for a couple of months, as he opens the year serving a 50-game suspension after violating the minor league drug policy by testing positive for marijuana. But when he returns, look out. He struck out 13.4 batters at high-A and Class AA in 2015, giving up just one homer in 101 1/3 innings. Look for his arrival in mid-summer where he could be an integral part of the Cardinals’ postseason run.
Pure fantasy: Gregory Polanco, Pirates. Pittsburgh’s other starting outfielders – Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte – are more coveted by fantasy owners, but Polanco, 24, can contribute in many of the same ways. Hitting out of the leadoff spot, Polanco could approach 100 runs scored if he can maintain on-base percentage gains. There’s also room for improvement in his stolen base rate (27-of-37). And at 6-5, 230, the home runs (nine last year) should come more frequently.
One crazy scenario: The Cubs don’t win the division. That’s right. The team that’s favored to win the World Series for the first time since 1908 struggles with expectations all year, and the Cardinals cruise right past them to win their fourth consecutive NL Central title, and sixth straight playoff berth. The Cardinals won 100 games last season despite having more impactful injuries than any team, and now they’ve got their big boy back in ace Adam Wainwright. They are looming large in the Cubs’ rear-view mirror.
The likeliest scenario: The Cubs win their first NL Central title since 2008, their first pennant since 1945, and their first World Series since 1908. Come on, the script has been written, right? This is a team that won 97 games last year, and then emptied their bank account, bringing in outfielder Jason Heyward, second baseman Ben Zobrist and starter John Lackey. They have an embarrassing array of riches on the field now, and no black cat or Steve Bartman impersonator can stop them now. Right?
Projected order of finish: Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds.
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NL West
Pivotal player: Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks. The D’Backs went all in this winter, expending $206 million for ace Zack Greinke, and emptying their farm system for Miller. There’s virtually no concern that Greinke will have a monster year, but Miller has the spotlight on him after the D’backs traded outfielder Ender Inciarte; shortstop Dansby Swanson, the first pick in the 2015 draft; and pitching prospect Aaron Blair. All for a guy who went 6-17 last season for the Atlanta Braves, although he had rotten luck and terrible run support while yielding a 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings. If he struggles in a new environment, the D’backs are in big trouble.
Kid in play: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have been patiently awaiting the arrival of the finest prospect in the land, and Seager whet their appetite by batting .337 with four homers and 17 RBI in just 98 at-bats after a September call-up; he also batted leadoff during the NL Division Series. Seager had a sprained knee that’s kept him out of Cactus League games since March 11, but is expected to be ready by opening day, and he’s the heavy favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors.
Pure fantasy: Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks. The lefty has been easy to overlook after elbow surgery caused him to miss all of 2014 and the first part of last season. But in 16 starts last year, his underlying skills were superior to his All-Star season of 2013 - his strikeout (8.3 K/9) and walk (1.8 BB/9) rates both improved, as did his ground-ball rate. The only concern is a potential innings cap after he only threw 85 last year.
One crazy scenario: The Dodgers, with a spring training that mostly consisted of medical reports, with more players in the trainers’ room than the clubhouse, shake off their woes and win the division a fourth consecutive season. They lost three starters in the spring, and didn’t have their regular infield together for a single inning, but their depth overcomes all of their blemishes. Maybe there is more to them than just three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw.
The likeliest scenario: The San Francisco Giants continue their every-other-year script and win the NL West, and perhaps the World Series, too. They dropped $220 million on Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to bolster their rotation. Their lineup, particularly the infield, has the potential to be lethal. They are the team that can end the Dodgers’ three-year reign.
Projected order of finish: Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies.
Capsules by Bob Nightengale, Jorge L. Ortiz and Steve Gardner
