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UGA and the SEC: Projecting the College Football Playoff's four-team field

As the hypothetical top seed, Alabama would begin the College Football Playoff at the Cotton Bowl–perhaps against a Big 12 foe.
Credit: Frederick Breedon

ATLANTA -- For the next six Tuesdays, 11Alive Sports will walk the plank of potential embarrassment ... by projecting the College Football Playoff rankings for each week.

The inaugural CFP rankings won't become public until next Tuesday, but, given our location in the Deep South, we wanted to get the hypothetical hype train rolling in advance -- since the national-title picture tends to undergo monumental changes every week.

Case in point: Of the previous two Saturdays, five Top 10 teams have been humbled by opponents deemed as underdogs, in the eyes of Las Vegas betting experts.

It's worth noting: Our projections will only focus on the upcoming CFP rankings.

In other words, we won't be making a case for the final foursome ... until the run-up to Conference Championship Weekend (Dec. 1).

If you're seeking looking-ahead projections, click here.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

1. ALABAMA (8-0)

REASONS TO SUPPORT THIS RANKING

**Is this version of Alabama one of the greatest teams of all time ... or are the Tide merely benefiting from an overrated schedule to date?

**Alabama leads the country in scoring offense and total offense.

**If the voting ended today ... QB Tua Tagovailoa would be the runaway Heisman Trophy winner.

**Alabama boasts top-15 rankings with scoring defense and total defense.

**The Crimson Tide have been atop the AP and coaches polls every week.

**Alabama's average victory margin stands at 38.2 points.

**Legacy matters, Part I: Alabama has made every College Football Playoff since its inception.

**Legacy matters, Part II: Nick Saban has claimed five of the last nine national titles.

REASONS TO DISMISS THIS RANKING

**Nothing to report here ... Alabama's the king until further notice.

2. LSU (7-1)

REASONS TO SUPPORT

**The Tigers are the only team with three victories vs. the AP Top 10 (Miami, Auburn, UGA).

**Strength of Schedule: LSU holds an elite-level ranking of 6th nationally (source: SBNation).

**The SEC has six teams ranked in the AP Top 25– the highest count of any league.

**Charting the one-loss teams in the AP Top 15, only the defeats for UGA (@ LSU) and Michigan (@ Notre Dame) carry greater weight than LSU's setback at Florida. (Sorry, Oklahoma.)

**The esteemed CFP committee understands the impact of creating a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup for the masses right out of the chute.

The Alabama-LSU winner (Nov. 3 in Baton Rouge) will likely be the Playoff's No. 1 program for the second CFP rankings (Nov. 6). The winning team will also have an inside track to the SEC West title.

REASONS TO DISMISS

**A number of college fans, especially those living in Indiana and South Carolina, might not appreciate one-loss LSU holding a higher CFP seed than Notre Dame and Clemson, respectively.

But that's too bad ... LSU has the superior resume among the trio.

3. NOTRE DAME (7-0)

REASONS TO SUPPORT

**The Irish have three impressive wins on their resume–vs. Michigan, vs. Stanford and at Virginia Tech.

**Overall, Notre Dame has a respectable schedule full of 10 Power 5 programs, plus one service academy (Navy).

**The CFP committee members will likely appreciate the Irish's acumen for being strong during close games.

**Notre Dame has a decent finishing kick with Northwestern (road), Florida State, Syracuse, USC (road).

**The Irish are well-balanced on offense, boasting seven tailbacks/pass-catchers with big-play availability.

**Given the immense drawing power of Notre Dame as a national brand, an undefeated Irish squad would be a lead-pipe cinch for the Playoff.

REASONS TO DISMISS

**Does Notre Dame have the stuff to be dominant? It's hard to imagine Alabama or Clemson barely surviving Vandy, Ball State and Pitt by an average margin of six points.

As such, there may be plenty of skeptics throughout the country, waiting to pounce on Notre Dame's first epic fail.

4. CLEMSON (7-0)

REASONS TO SUPPORT

**The Tigers are one of four unbeaten teams listed in the top 10.

**Clemson enjoyed its most complete victory last Saturday, crushing No. 16 North Carolina State by 34 points.

**The star-studded defensive line gets most of the attention (and rightfully so), but the Clemson offense deserves props for having great balance. Freshman Trevor Lawrence (1,176 yards passing, 12 TDs, 68.3-percent completion rate) has been a rock at quarterback ... and the three-headed rushing attack of Travis Etienne (847 total yards, 15 TDs), Lyn-J Dixon (10.4 yards per carry) and Adam Choice have been great during crunch time.

**Texas A&M wasn't ranked at the time of Clemson's narrow road win from September; but it's imperative for the Aggies to keep winning and indirectly boosting the Tigers' Playoff resume.

**Given the school's decorated success from previous years, an undefeated Clemson would be a no-brainer pick for the four-team Playoff.

Consequently, the opponent for the ACC title game (Virginia Tech, Miami, Virginia) likely wouldn't hinder the Tigers' chances of earning a semifinals berth. Just win, baby!

REASONS TO DISMISS

**It's a good thing Clemson crushed NC State last week, because the Wolfpack might be the only ranked opponent on the Tigers' schedule all year (at the time of playing). In other words, losing to Florida State this week would be a devastating blow to Clemson's playoff chances.

BEST OF THE REST

5. GEORGIA (6-1)

SKINNY: The Dawgs are perfectly positioned to make the four-team Playoff field, and perhaps carry the No. 1 overall seed. The recipe for success: Just keep winning all the way through Conference Championship Saturday.

6. MICHIGAN (7-1)

SKINNY: In the wake of Ohio State's stunning blowout defeat to Purdue, Michigan has assumed the mantle of being the Big Ten's best (and perhaps only) hope for Playoff glory. Next up: Penn State.

7. FLORIDA (6-1)

SKINNY: We'll know everything about the Gators' Playoff prospects ... in four days (vs. UGA in Jacksonville).

8. TEXAS (6-1)

SKINNY: Of the teams listed in this countdown, Texas has the worst defeat of the bunch (vs. Maryland in Week 1). All might be forgiven, though, if the Longhorns can knock off West Virginia (Nov. 3) and Texas Tech (Nov. 10) over the next three Saturdays.

9. OKLAHOMA (6-1)

SKINNY: Similar to Texas (above), Oklahoma has a zero margin of error for Playoff eligibility. The Sooners, who were never really penalized for surviving Army in overtime last month, need to run the table from this point forward.

10. UCF (7-0)

SKINNY: Just my two cents: If UCF played Appalachian State on a neutral field ... the Knights would win.

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