For the next three Tuesdays, 11Alive Sports shall walk the plank of potential embarrassment ... by projecting the College Football Playoff rankings.
And in case you weren't aware, the third Playoff rankings become public later tonight!
It's worth noting: Our projections will only focus on the imminent CFP rankings.
In other words, we won't be making a case for the final foursome ... until maybe next week.
If you're seeking looking-ahead projections, click here.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
1. ALABAMA (10-0)
REASONS TO SUPPORT THIS RANKING
This version of the Crimson Tide represents the closest thing we'll have to 'perfection' in college football.
**Back-to-back shutouts (first time since 1980).
**Alabama owns top-5 rankings with scoring offense and total offense.
**If the voting ended today ... QB Tua Tagovailoa would be the runaway Heisman Trophy choice.
On the flip side, I'm a little worried Alabama hasn't rested him much, despite the knee injury, as a means of preserving Tua's Heisman standing.
**Alabama boasts top-10 rankings with scoring defense and total defense.
**The Crimson Tide have been atop the AP and coaches polls every week.
**For the season, Alabama's average victory margin stands at 36.9 points.
**Legacy matters, Part I: Alabama has made every College Football Playoff since its inception.
**Legacy matters, Part II: Nick Saban has claimed five of the last nine national titles.
REASONS TO DISMISS THIS RANKING
It's hard to envision Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan or Georgia being anything less than double-digit-point underdogs against Alabama.
2. CLEMSON (10-0)
REASONS TO SUPPORT
**The No. 2 Tigers were amazing in last week's 27-7 thumping of Boston College, holding the Eagles offense to only eight first downs and 113 total yards.
**Prior to the BC road rout, Clemson enjoyed an average victory margin of 51 points versus Wake Forest, Florida State, NC State and Louisville.
**The Tigers are one of four unbeaten teams listed in the top 10 (along with 'Bama, Notre Dame, UCF).
**The star-studded defensive line garners most of the attention (and rightfully so), but the Clemson offense deserves props for its impressive balance.
a) Freshman Trevor Lawrence (1,844 yards passing, 19 TDs, 66.7-percent completion rate) has been a rock at quarterback.
b) The three-headed rushing attack of Travis Etienne (1,076 rushing yards, 16 TDs), Lyn-J Dixon (10.8 yards per carry) and Adam Choice have been great during crunch time.
**Given the school's decorated success from previous years (one national title, three straight semifinal berths), an undefeated Clemson would be an easy top-2 pick for the four-team Playoff.
Consequently, a lackluster opponent for the ACC title game (Pitt or Virginia) likely wouldn't hinder the Tigers' chances of earning an elite-level seed.
Just win, baby!
REASONS TO DISMISS
None whatsoever.
3. NOTRE DAME (10-0)
REASONS TO SUPPORT
**The Irish have five solid wins on their resume–vs. Michigan, vs. Stanford, at Northwestern, at Virginia Tech and the ACC Coastal-leading Pitt Panthers.
**Similar to Clemson last month, Notre Dame had no trouble fleecing Florida State by 25-plus points.
**Overall, Notre Dame has a respectable schedule full of 10 Power 5 programs, plus one service academy (Navy).
**The Playoff committee members will likely appreciate the Irish's acumen for being strong during close games.
**Notre Dame has a solid finishing kick with No. 12 Syracuse (at home) and USC on the road (dicey).
**The Irish are well-balanced on offense, boasting seven tailbacks/pass-catchers with big-play availability.
**Given the immense drawing power of Notre Dame as a national brand, an undefeated Irish squad would be a certifiable lock for the Playoff.
REASONS TO DISMISS
Does Notre Dame have more NFL-worthy talent than Michigan, Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma? Probably not.
However, there's no knocking the Irish's Playoff resume, when carrying an unblemished record into mid-November.
4. MICHIGAN (9-1)
REASONS TO SUPPORT
**The Wolverines have been red-hot since the season-opening loss to Notre Dame. Charting their eight-game winning streak, seven outcomes involved a spread of double-digit points.
**The Michigan defense recently held three ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State) to a grand total of 27 points.
**Michigan should be overwhelming favorites for two of its three final outings, including the Big Ten championship (Northwestern).
REASONS TO DISMISS
If Michigan beats Ohio State in Columbus (next Saturday), that should be enough cachet for the Wolverines (as Big Ten champions) to secure a spot in the four-team Playoff.
In other words, there's little chance of a second SEC team (Georgia?) getting chosen over a one-loss Michigan team for Orange or Cotton bowl (national semifinals).
BEST OF THE REST
5. GEORGIA (9-1)
SKINNY: Of the teams listed from 5-10 (below), only the Dawgs would be guaranteed a top-2 ranking after Dec. 1, upon running the table from this point forward.
The rationale: Georgia would own victories over Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina and (hypothetically) Alabama as the coup de grace.
That's an impossible resume to beat, especially as the SEC champs.
6. WASHINGTON STATE (9-1)
SKINNY: I'm torn with this selection.
In one respect, it's wrong to reward Oklahoma over Washington State, since the Sooners were lucky to survive Army (overtime) and Oklahoma State (botched 2-pointer in the final seconds) at home in recent weeks.
On the other hand, if the Sooners and Cougars met on a neutral field (similar to the 2003 Rose Bowl), I would likely pick Oklahoma to prevail.
That said, we'll go with Wazzu for the time being, thanks to more consistent play ... and rock-solid victories over Oregon, Stanford and Utah.
7. OKLAHOMA (9-1)
SKINNY: Big 12 leaders Oklahoma and West Virginia are ostensibly in the same boat.
Either sweep the upcoming head-to-head series (season finale/Big 12 title game) ... or there's no shot of making the four-team Playoff.
8. LSU (8-2)
SKINNY: Say hello to the most helpless ranking of the top 10.
Why is that?
Even with its three top-10 wins from September/October (Miami, Auburn, Georgia), LSU has no additional power to leverage a spot in the four-team Playoff.
No title game appearance. No more big-boy opponents.
As such, there's no guilt in dropping the Tigers this week, despite Saturday's road win versus Arkansas.
9. WEST VIRGINIA (8-1)
SKINNY: See Oklahoma analysis above.
10. OHIO STATE (9-1)
SKINNY: Here's an interesting hypothetical: If UGA and Ohio State rolled through the rest of the regular season, and then captured conference titles with the SEC and Big Ten, respectively ... would a one-loss, but non-SEC-champion Alabama make the Playoff over the Buckeyes?
It's essentially the same dynamic as last season ... all the way down to Ohio State incurring yet another blowout defeat to an underwhelming Big Ten West team.
