The May and June months can be somewhat lean for fresh NFL content, minus the fleeting photo of a celebrated rookie or well-traveled veteran getting reps during mini-camps and/or Organized Team Activities.
But have no worries, for 11Alive Sports has you covered with this all-encompassing, post-draft breakdown of the NFC South, factoring in three components:
1) NFL Draft Weekend Awards
2) Fun Facts From The NFL Schedule Release
3) NFL 'Victory' Over-Under Predictions (source: Westgate SportsBook)
DRAFT WEEKEND AWARDS
Biggest Day 1 No-Brainer
The Falcons adhered to one of the time-tested rules of fantasy football last Thursday: Always let value fall into your lap.
By plucking Alabama wideout Calvin Ridley at 26th overall, without trading upward, the Falcons now have a three-to-four-year window of boasting the NFC's most prolific receiving tandem—Ridley and Julio Jones, who holds supreme four-year averages of 103 catches, 161 targets, 1,579 yards and six touchdowns since 2014.
Back in February, a number of draft pundits had Ridley (224 catches, 2,781 yards, 19 TDs over three college seasons) slotted as a top-10 pick.
However, despite posting strong numbers at the NFL Combine and earning high praise for his route-running ability, Ridley ended up as the second wideout taken at the bottom of Round 1 (right behind Maryland's D.J. Moore).
Biggest Day 1 Surprise
The Saints traded up 11 spots—thus sacrificing a first-round pick in next year's draft—to acquire Texas San-Antonio defensive end Marcus Davenport at 16th overall. Granted, Davenport's a 6-foot-5, 264-pound beast with impressive speed and quickness to match; but monumental rises in the draft order usually involve the eventual selections of offensive playmakers, especially quarterbacks.
On the flip side, if the Saints genuinely believe they'll be playing in Super Bowl 53 next February... then who cares about the dead-last pick in Round 1, as compensation for landing the high-upside Davenport?
Best Drop-Back Maneuver Of Round 1
I'm convinced the Buccaneers would have grabbed University of Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea at No. 7 overall anyway, if Tampa Bay had been obliged to honor its original draft slot.
But alas, Bucs GM Jason Licht executed a forward-thinking swap with the Bills, allowing for Tampa Bay to collect a pair of second-round choices ... as a trade-off for sliding five spots in Round 1.
Consequently, as a reward for having a better gauge of Vea's pre-draft value, Tampa Bay dipped into the Round 2 pool three times on Friday—with the drafting of two cornerbacks (M.J. Stewart, Carlton Davis) and high-end tailback Ronald Jones.
Best Round 2 Steal
The aforementioned Ronald Jones.
In his final season at USC, Jones accounted for 1,673 total yards (1,486 rushing) and 19 touchdowns, while averaging only 21.3 touches per outing; and judging by the many highlight videos devoted to the speedy and elusive back, it's easy to envision Jones becoming the Buccaneers' lead back for Week 1.
Biggest Day 2 Head-Scratcher
Falcons RB Ito Smith. As a pop-culture fan of the 1990s, I'm happy to see Atlanta draft a player whose nickname was inspired by Lance Ito, the famous judge for O.J. Simpson's infamous murder trial in 1994-95.
That aside, the Falcons paid a steep price for a rusher who, in a perfect world, will remain the club's third-string tailback for this season.
(Check out Ito's annual averages his final three seasons at Southern Miss—41 catches, 1,791 total yards, 16 touchdowns.)
On the flip side, perhaps Atlanta viewed this as a preemptive move to counter Tevin Coleman's likely run at free agency next March.
Biggest Day 3 Shocker
Four years from now, Panthers fans will laugh at how Ole Miss defensive end Marquis Haynes (6-foot-3, 240 pounds) ended up as a fourth-round selection, despite collecting 32 sacks and 47.5 tackles for loss with the Rebels.
The second stat actually carries greater weight than the first, when it comes to projecting NFL greatness among college prospects. As in, it's impossible to guard the defender who's always three yards into the offensive backfield.
And yet, Haynes was hardly a consideration for NFL general managers after three full rounds. Perish the thought.
FUN FACTS: THE POLITICS OF SCHEDULING
FALCONS
THE GOOD
**The Falcons have three straight home games for Weeks 2-4 (Panthers, Saints, Bengals).
**Atlanta will enjoy five home outings in the first seven weeks, with only quick trips to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh during that span.
**The Falcons won't travel further west than New Orleans at any time during the regular season.
**Even with the quirky slate, Atlanta only has a pair of back-to-back roadies for the year; and the Weeks 16/17 visits to Carolina and Tampa Bay will likely occur in decent weather.
THE BAD
**Counting the blustery months of December/January, history-wise, the Falcons have a 1-5 career mark when playing the Packers at either Lambeau Field or Milwaukee County Stadium.
**The Browns, who have endured the shame of going 1-31 over the last two seasons, likely won't be pushovers when the Falcons visit Cleveland in Week 10. Their roster was substantially upgraded during the offseason.
SAINTS
THE GOOD
**The Saints are the only NFL team to enjoy back-to-back home games for Weeks 1/2 and 16/17. It's the perfect situation for a title-contending club looking to start fast and finish strong.
**Five of the Saints' first six opponents missed the playoffs last season. The Falcons, who'll host New Orleans in Week 3, are the only exception here.
THE BAD
**New Orleans has three different back-to-back road trips during the season, highlighted by a back-to-back-to-back voyage to Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina in December.
**The Saints' final six opponents for 2018 (Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers twice) had a combined regular-season record of 51-29; and that doesn't include Philadelphia's glorious run to its first-ever Lombardi Trophy.
PANTHERS
THE GOOD
**Carolina stands to benefit from this quirk: The Panthers will encounter just one NFC South opponent in the first seven games (Week 2 in Atlanta).
**With the likely exception of Cleveland in Week 14 (road), Carolina could easily encounter ideal weather for its 15 other outings.
THE BAD
**The Panthers will have the earliest bye possible this season (Week 4), short of a weather catastrophe wreaking havoc with the NFL's master schedule (just like Dolphins-Bucs last year).
**Carolina will garner an extended break from Weeks 10-11 ... but that 10-day respite will be bookended by trips to Pittsburgh and Detroit.
**The Panthers will have three separate back-to-back road outings during the regular season—covering October, November and December.
BUCCANEERS
THE GOOD
**The Bucs' first five home opponents (Eagles, Steelers, Browns, Redskins, 49ers) all involve non-divisional foes.
**Tampa Bay will be at home four times over the final six weekends, highlighted by a back-to-back-to-back stretch against San Francisco, Carolina and New Orleans (Weeks 12-14).
THE BAD
**The Buccaneers will encounter a brutal stretch of five road games from Weeks 4-12, with the convenient caveat of a Week 5 bye separating trips to Chicago and Atlanta.
**For what it's worth, the Bucs are the only team to face the Eagles and Steelers on back-to-back weekends (Weeks 2/3). The only saving grace: Both outings will be in Tampa Bay ... presumably in front of large clusters of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh fans.
OVER, UNDER ... OR PUSH?
Earlier this week, Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas offered its first post-draft listing of the victory over-under totals for all 32 teams.
League-wise, the highest winning estimates include the Patriots (11), Eagles (10.5), Steelers (10.5), Packers (10), Vikings (10) and Rams (9.5); but for the time being, let's only address this fun exercise from an NFC South perspective .
SAINTS—9.5 VICTORIES (PICK: OVER)
This should be an easy 'over,' based on four factors:
a) In 2017, eight of the Saints' 11 victories included margins of 10 points or more; and after Week 2, the New Orleans defense surrendered 17 or fewer points seven different times.
b) Mark Ingram (1,540 total yards/12 TDs last year) and Alvin Kamara (1,554 total yards/13 TDs as a rookie) redoubtably serve as the NFL's best backfield ... and it's not even close.
On the flip side, everything would have to go perfectly for Ingram and Kamara to repeat last year's unprecedented feat of 1,500 total yards apiece; but at the very least, they're both healthy shoo-ins for 1,300 total yards and double-digit touchdowns.
c) Looking at the schedule, it's hard to envision the Saints enduring more than two or more streaks of multiple defeats.
Maybe Weeks 3/4 against the Falcons and Giants (both on the road).
Maybe Weeks 8/9 against the Vikings (road) and Rams (home); but even this seems like a stretch, since New Orleans will be seeking vengeance on back-to-back weekends versus Minnesota (last year's playoff heartbreak has few peers in NFL history) and Los Angeles (the Rams outlasted the Saints in Week 12 last year ... one of the regular season's most thrilling battles).
d) In the Drew Brees era, the Saints have notched five different campaigns of double-digit wins. In other words, the club rarely falls short of public or Vegas thresholds ... when expectations are sky-high.
FALCONS—9 VICTORIES (PICK: OVER)
This is a reasonably confident selection, solely based on the Falcons getting a hot start—something like 5-2 or 6-1—with so many home outings in September/early October.
However, a 4-3 or 3-4 opening might spell impending doom after the bye, with Atlanta staring at a gauntlet of Washington (road), Cleveland (road), Dallas (home), New Orleans (road—Thanksgiving Night), Baltimore (home) and Green Bay (road) over a six-week stretch.
And as mentioned above ... the Browns will NOT be pushovers late in the season, barring major injuries.
PANTHERS—9 VICTORIES (PICK: OVER)
Teams only have six games against their divisional brethren, or roughly 38 percent of the schedule. As such, even if you're stuck in a brutal division, there are still 10 outside opportunities to carve out a strong record and make the playoffs.
This explains how the Panthers can lag behind the Saints and Falcons in my mind ... and still remain healthy bets for 10 or 11 wins. And in case you're wondering, since 1979, 20 NFL divisions have produced at least three clubs with double-digit victories during the regular season.
The last division to pull off the feat? Why, the NFC South from last year, with the Saints and Panthers posting 11-5 records (New Orleans claimed the tiebreaker) and the Falcons at 10-6.
BUCCANEERS—6.5 VICTORIES (PICK: UNDER)
Here's the deal with preseason predictions: As pundits, we tend to be overly positive about the vast majority of teams, given our desire to avoid being meanies so early in the offseason.
It's also a byproduct of young veterans maturing, splashy player signings during free agency and every front office being tickled pink about their respective draft classes ... even though history dictates there will be more high-round flameouts than certifiable winners.
Take ESPN, for example: When the NFL released the schedule a few weeks ago, the respective ESPN beat reporters for each club offered their game-by-game predictions ... and the results were awkward, since there was a large discrepancy between the cumulative number of victories and losses.
That's the beauty of NFL games, barring the rare and annoying regular-season ties. Football is a zero-sum business—somebody wins, somebody loses. Like it or lump it.
Which brings us to the Bucs: It seems kind of cruel to forecast this team for another unfulfilling season, factoring in how Jameis Winston (missed games to injury and suspension in 2017) likely would have become the first quarterback in history to exceed 4,000 yards passing in his first three years.
But given the tremendous strength of the NFC South, unfortunately, someone has to take the fall to balance out the NFL universe.
