11Alive Sports provides an update of the quarterback-starter rankings with fantasyland, heading into the second weekend of preseason action.
For your own sanity, it may be wise to ignore the assets ranked at the bottom of the list, since there isn't much clarity with the Browns, Jets and Bills, in terms whether Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and/or Josh Allen will be Week 1 starters for their respective franchises.
Consequently, if Mayfield, Darnold or Allen should become entrenched-starter options by Week 5, it would likely reduce your urge to select Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown or AJ McCarron in a traditional 16-round draft.
It's a fluid listing, for sure. So don't sweat it just yet.
QB-STARTER RANKINGS
1-16
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Deshaun Watson, Texans
3. Cam Newton, Panthers
4. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
5. Tom Brady, Patriots
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
7. Carson Wentz, Eagles
8. Matthew Stafford, Lions
9. Jared Goff, Rams
10. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
11. Philip Rivers, Chargers
12. Drew Brees, Saints
13. Matt Ryan, Falcons
14. Marcus Mariota, Titans
15. Andrew Luck, Colts
16. Alex Smith, Redskins
SKINNY
1. Rodgers remains a so-so pick for the No. 1 slot. According to FFToday.com, one of my favorite research sites, Rodgers ranked just fifth in fantasy points per game, which can be a tad misleading, since the count included his early-injury exit against the Vikings (Week 7).
Plus, Rodgers notched only 30-plus fantasy points in two games last season; and at the time of this writing, the Packers have yet to sign a lock-down option as the No. 3 receiver, ranking just below Davante Adams (two-year average: 74 catches, 911 yards, 11 TDs) and Randall Cobb.
Perhaps someone of Dez Bryant's ilk.
On the flip side, citing his last three healthy campaigns (2014-16), Rodgers stealthily averaged 4,210 yards passing and 39 touchdowns.
At the very least, he'll offer top-3 production when at full strength. No other quarterback can guarantee that heading into training camp.
2. In his final five games with the Texans, Watson averaged 34.1 points per game, highlighted by that insane duel with Russell Wilson in Seattle—with both quarterbacks eclipsing the 400-yard passing mark.
How good was Watson as a rookie?
Watson made receiver Will Fuller (seven TDs in four games with Watson ... zero without him) an instant star in the fantasy realm; and that's no small accomplishment, folks.
Bottom line: If Watson hadn't blown out his knee last year, then he would easily be the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy drafts.
In the meantime, there's certainly no shame in moving up to the No. 2 spot.
3. Using FFToday scoring, Wilson (3,983 yards passing, 37 total TDs last year) posted three 'dud' outings of 16 points or less last season ... and still ended up with the highest weekly average among quarterbacks who logged at least 10 starts.
Now for the bad news: Wilson has never notched 30-plus touchdowns in back-to-back campaigns; and with Seattle's running game improved and Jimmy Graham now with Green Bay, it's hard to imagine Wilson repeating the otherworldly greatness of 2017.
Plus, I'm worried that Doug Baldwin's preseason knee injury will become a game-time-decision annoyance for the bulk of the regular season.
4. Fun fact: Newton has never registered fewer than five rushing touchdowns in a given season; so spare me all the declining-skills talk with a man who has yet to turn 30 ... and cleared 4,500 total yards and 28 touchdowns last year.
Plus, the Panthers are loaded with explosive playmakers at running back (Christian McCaffrey, C.J. Anderson, Cameron Artis-Payne), tight end (Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas) and wide receiver (Devin Funchess, Torrey Smith, Curtis Samuel and high-end rookie D.J. Moore).
Newton has all the pieces in place to become a fantasy monster once again.
5. The fantasy perception of Stafford has inexplicably changed over the years. Yes, he might not be the next Dan Marino ... but at the very least, he's the modern-day version of Jim Kelly or Warren Moon.
I'd easily accept a Kelly- or Moon-like starter on my fantasy squad. Stafford boasts seven consecutive campaigns of 4,000 yards passing; and during that stretch, the UGA product averaged 4,564 yards passing and 30 touchdowns.
Also, when charting his final 11 games last year, Stafford stealthily averaged 303 yards passing and two TDs.
6. It's fitting that Cousins inked a fully guaranteed contract of $94 million during the offseason (Vikings). In his final three seasons with the Redskins, Cousins accounted for 13,176 yards passing and 94 total touchdowns ... or per-annum averages of 4,392 yards passing and 28 TDs.
Now for the hard part: With Cousins migrating to Minnesota, will the conservative ways of head coach Mike Zimmer lead to lesser fantasy numbers at quarterback?
Yes, the Vikings are seemingly loaded with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, Kendall Wright and Laquon Treadwell (late-round bounceback candidate); but Case Keenum only averaged 19.2 fantasy points last season (14 starts), with a large chunk of the production occurring after tailback Dalvin Cook incurred a major knee injury.
Tough call here for Cousins and the top 10.
7. Using FFToday scoring, Alex Smith averaged 24.2 fantasy points on the road last season (seven starts), an impressive tally which includes a zero-touchdown clunker against the Giants' pedestrian defense.
Now with the Redskins, Smith should fare similarly well in Jay Gruden's offense, relying on the likes of Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson to flirt with 4,100 yards passing and 25 touchdowns.
8. It's weird to see Brees and Ryan occupying the bottom of Tier I. Both quarterbacks are locks for 4,000 yards passing ... but there are no guarantees for 25 or more touchdowns apiece.
That aside, can you imagine landing Brees or Ryan in the final moments of a 16-round draft?
Both passers have the capacity to carry their respective offenses at least eight times this season ... making them supreme fantasy weapons for bench play.
Of course, if you have designs on drafting either Ryan or Brees, please don't invest a high-round pick on another quarterback. This move would be a gigantic waste of time, barring injury.
17-32
17. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
18. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
19. Eli Manning, Giants
20. Derek Carr, Raiders
21. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
22. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
23. Case Keenum, Broncos
24. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
25. Andy Dalton, Bengals
26. Tyrod Taylor, Browns
27. Blake Bortles, Jaguars
28. Sam Bradford, Cardinals
29. Joe Flacco, Ravens
30. Josh McCown, Jets
31. AJ McCarron, Bills
32. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and 2015 Cynopsis Media award winner for "Sports Blog Of The Year," has previously served as the lead fantasy analyst for Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports South, Bleacher Report and Fanball.com.
