ATLANTA — Just 1 week from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Thursday morning. They announced an 85% chance of an above-average season, with a prediction of 17-25 named storms, 8 to 13 to reach hurricane status, and 4-7 of which to become major hurricanes of at least Category 3 status. It's the highest forecast they've ever issued for the May outlook.
The season is expected to be 'hyperactive,' with above-average activity in the Atlantic. This is due to the forecasted development of La Niña by the peak of hurricane season and the record warmth ocean heat content in the Main Development Region, a breeding ground for tropical cyclones.
The 'average' hurricane season (based on 1991-2020 data) features 14 named storms, 7 of which reach hurricane status and 3 of which become major hurricanes.
This forecast does not include how many storms may hit the U.S. coastline. But it only takes 1 significant landfall to make a hurricane season forever remembered as destructive. Now is the time to prepare for impacts ahead this season.
The category of a hurricane only corresponds to the maximum wind speeds, designated by the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It does not take into account the grand scale of threats that a tropical system can bring. 90% of hurricane-related fatalities occur from water -- storm surge and inland flooding. Tropical Systems can bring flooding rains, strong winds, and inland tornadoes to our north Georgia region.
NOAA's forecast comes after several other universities and private forecasting companies released above-average forecasts for the season. Colorado State University, led by lead forecaster Dr. Philip Klotzbach, is predicting 23 named storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes and 5 of those to be major hurricanes. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), predicts 23 named storms, 13 of which to become hurricanes.
The record most active Atlantic hurricane season is 2020, when 30 named storms developed.
Hurricane Outlook Factors
Ocean Warmth
For tropical cyclones to form, you need warm ocean waters around 80 degrees or above. For Rapid Intensification to occur, when the winds in a tropical system increase at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period, you need that warm water at bigger depths.
Currently, the Atlantic Ocean, in the 'Main Development Region,' is at record warm temperatures – about two degrees above average.
La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO. ENSO is a naturally occurring climate pattern based on sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Warmer than average is El Niño, cooler than average is La Niña, and near average is ENSO neutral or La Nada.
Currently, a weak El Niño phase is underway, but we are quickly moving to ENSO-neutral conditions. The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 77% chance of a transition to La Niña is expected this summer. La Niña years are more conducive for tropical development because there is less wind shear over the Atlantic.
Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction as you go higher in the atmosphere. When hurricanes form, air moves quickly around the eyewall, circulating up and out.
Strong wind shear disrupts the flow of a hurricane and prevents the structure that a tropical system needs to strengthen.
The bottom line is that hurricanes are sensitive to wind shear, and lower wind shear means easier tropical formation and intensification.
The combination of warm Atlantic water and an emerging La Niña phase could be the perfect environment for tropical activity. But remember... no matter how active a hurricane season is, all it takes is one to be impactful for you.
Storm Names
Here are the 2024 Atlantic Season Names. If we go through this entire list, we will move to a new Supplemental List.
Tropical Timeline
Hurricane Season Begins June 1st and runs through November 30th. Just because the season officially starts June 1st doesn't mean storms cannot form before that or after the finish. We have seen this more often than not in the past decade.
Hurricane Season Early Start?
Thursday morning, The National Hurricane Center is already designating an area of thunderstorms with a low chance of tropical development in the next week. Right now, they are giving it a 10% chance of development.
