Watch live results and analysis of the 2018 midterm elections with NBC News' Chuck Todd, Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie and more.
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How NBC News will call elections on Election Night
(From NBCNews.com) NBC News will be clear about its nomenclature during the entire election process. In addition, NBC News will explain methodology for collecting data it presents. Here are some terms you will hear on NBC and MSNBC and read on NBCNews.com on election night:
Projected winner: NBC has made a projection that a candidate will win the race, but the vote count is not complete. This call is made only after all the polls are scheduled to have closed in that race.
Apparent winner: NBC has tallied enough votes to indicate that a candidate has won the race, but the results may well depend upon a potential recount or final official tallies.
Winner: A candidate who has clearly won the race, beyond the normal margin for a recount. "Winner" will not be used unless returns make the outcome a virtual certainty.
Note that none of these terms refers to the "official" winner, since most states take weeks to officially certify a winner in an election.
Too early to call: There is not enough data to allow analysts to make a call.
Too close to call: While there is data on the race, the numbers are too close to allow analysts to make a call.
Senate Composition: The Decision Desk tracks individual Senate races. This is not a projection of the entire Senate but reported results “at this hour” as individual races are called. The composition will show the totals in the new Senate by party, showing the new called races added in with seats that are not up for re-election this year.
House Estimate: This is a projection of the House as a whole. For each of the 435 individual House races, the Decision Desk calculates the probability of a Democratic, Republican or independent victory in that House seat, based on pre-election research. During the night, election analysts examine all the available vote data and adjust the probabilities for each House seat that changes from its pre-election probability. The model then calculates the most probable outcome of the election in the House and also calculates an estimate of the probability of error expressed as a number of seats plus or minus. Based on the House Estimate, there is also a probability of a certain party winning control of the House.
In addition, individual House calls are made and tracked throughout the night. Like the Senate composition, the individual House races will be tallied as races are called and may not add to 435 called races on election night.
