ATLANTA — The Atlanta Hawks should have plenty of high-end options in next month's NBA draft. It's one of the few positive perks that come with owning a top-level selection (No. 3 overall) ... and needing a serious infusion of young talent throughout the roster.
With the draft one month away, it's a good time to review Atlanta's strategic avenues for its three first-round selections—third, 19th and 30th overall.
Here's a look at six updated mock drafts from other publications, citing NBADraft.net (one of the most accurate sites in the biz), SI.com, SportingNews.com, USA TODAY Sports, BusinessInsider.com and SBNation.com.
One caveat, before we proceed: For all six mocks, the Hawks never had the chance to select Arizona center DeAndre Ayton or Slovenian point guard Luka Doncic—this year's so-called unicorn prospect, in terms of having little competition against NBA-type players in Europe and his reported unwillingness to interview with NBA clubs prior to the draft (including the possible withholding of medical records).
In that vein, the Hawks' primary options, according to the experts, essentially boil down to Duke power forward Marvin Bagley III, Michigan State small forward Jaren Jackson Jr., University of Texas center Mohamed Bamba, Missouri small forward Michael Porter Jr. and Oklahoma sharpshooter Trae Young—the closest thing to Stephen Curry in this draft (albeit shorter).
NBADRAFT.NET
1. C DeAndre Ayton, Suns
2. PG Luka Doncic, Kings
3. PF Marvin Bagley III, Hawks
4. SF Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
5. SF Michael Porter Jr., Mavericks
6. C Mohamed Bamba, Magic
7. C Wendell Carter Jr., Bulls
8. PG Trae Young, Cavaliers
9. PG Collin Sexton, Knicks
10. SG/SF Mikal Bridges, 76ers
19. C Mitchell Robinson, Hawks
30. PG Trevon Duval, Hawks
BREAKDOWN
1. The Bagley selection makes sense for a number of reasons: Great size and versatility, polished moves around the basket, tangible upside and he's a marketable name to sell to the fan base. Plus, he might actually be the best player in the field, when it's time to dole out 'max' extensions of $200 million in five or six years.
2. If you're looking for a good Bagley comp, look no further than Al Horford, who was the Hawks' last top-three selection in the draft (2007).
3. Regarding the 19th pick ... Mitchell Robinson is a freakishly long asset at 6-foot-11, 215 pounds. He also has great explosion around the rim and above-average range from beyond the arc (compared to other big men).
On the down side, he's making the NBA jump directly from high school, given his current age (20). For a Hawks team that has no serious designs on contending for the playoffs next season (regardless of what the front office might say), projects like Robinson would be allowed to progress at a normal rate.
One more note: If Atlanta loves Robinson, the club should strongly consider taking him at 19. The Lakers have reportedly promised Robinson at 25; but if you've been paying attention to the NBA draft over the last 15 years ... promises mean absolutely nothing when teams are on the clock and full of other options on the board.
4. For the 30th pick ... Duval was certainly a high-wire act at Duke, using his incredible athleticism and supreme quickness against formidable competition in the ACC.
On the flip side, Duval shot only 29 percent from 3-point range during his freshman campaign. Plus, there were inconsistent patches of production, when perusing the kid's game logs from the 2017-18 season.
Bottom line: Yes, the Hawks need a point guard, regardless of how the Dennis Schroder dilemma (trade/no trade) shakes out in the coming year.
But at pick 30, Atlanta might be inclined to snag more polished assets like Moritz Wagner (Michigan), Tony Carr (Penn State), Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State) ... or a European talent like France's Elie Okobo, who might have the option to remain overseas for another year, thus saving the Hawks some cash for the 2018-19 salary cap.
SPORTS ILLUSTRATED
1. C DeAndre Ayton, Suns
2. PG Luka Doncic, Kings
3. SF Jaren Jackson Jr., Hawks
4. PF Marvin Bagley III, Grizzlies
5. C Mohamed Bamba, Mavericks
6. C Wendell Carter Jr., Magic
7. SF Michael Porter Jr., Bulls
8. PG Trae Young, Cavaliers
9. SG/SF Mikal Bridges, Knicks
10. SF Miles Bridges, 76ers
19. SG Anfernee Simons, Hawks
30. SG/SF Rawle Akins, Hawks
BREAKDOWN
1. Jackson should be an All-Star someday and a candidate for a monster contract extension in about five years. In the meantime, he'll likely require some time to grow into the high-pressure role of reliable offensive weapon.
On the plus side at Michigan State, Jackson was a formidable one-on-one defender, amazing with weakside-help defense and above-average when shooting from long distance. The deficiencies were easy to identify, as well, in terms of Jackson's struggles with getting to the rim and consistently finding his offensive spots in a half-court setting.
2. The various NBA sites are treating the battle between Bagley and Jackson as a splitting-hairs proposition, depending on a team's preference. That's the good news.
On a down note, with Bagley and Jackson garnering praise as the clear third and fourth options with the whole board ... the public might revolt if the Hawks opted for a rogue Option C in this draft conundrum.
3. Regarding the 19th pick ... I don't see how the Hawks would invest a reasonably high selection on Simons (6-foot-3, 185 pounds), who spent his age-18 season at IMG Academy in Florida.
Yes, the kid has explosive athleticism and rock-solid moves to the basket; but when viewing his YouTube highlights, Evans' level of competition at IMG evokes the feel and intensity of Over-30 Open Gym on Sunday afternoons.
If the Hawks truly covet Simons on Draft Night ... perhaps run the risk of him being available at 30 or 33.
4. For the 30th selection ... Rawle Akins' talents might have been obscured at Arizona, when viewed through the prisms of DeAndre Ayton, Allonzo Trier and Lauri Markkanen (2017 season).
That aside, Akins certainly has the physical tools to carve out a respectable NBA career. Of course, modest projections like that won't necessarily fly next month, since this draft should be loaded with highly productive second-rounders.
SPORTING NEWS
1. PG Luka Doncic, Suns
2. C DeAndre Ayton, Kings
3. PF Marvin Bagley III, Hawks
4. SF Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
5. C Mohamed Bamba, Mavericks
6. PG Trae Young, Magic
7. C Wendell Carter Jr, Bulls
8. SF Michael Porter Jr., Cavaliers
9. SF Miles Bridges, Knicks
10. SG/SF Mikal Bridges, 76ers
19. SG/SF Troy Brown, Hawks
30. C Moritz Wagner, Hawks
BREAKDOWN
1. NBADraft.net assigned a 92 grade to Brown (100 max). If he's anything close to that projection, the Hawks would be landing a certifiable steal at the 19th slot.
For his lone season at Oregon, Brown averaged 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and a stealth 1.6 steals per game.
My only beef with the selection: The vast majority of Brown highlights involve him making plays off the stationary dribble.
In other words, he'd require the ball in isolation situations to be successful at the next level; and unless he's the next incarnation of LeBron James, James Harden or even DeMar DeRozan ... that's not happening anytime soon.
As such, it's tough to envision Brown being a prominent fixture with the Hawks, right off the bat.
2. Conflict of interest alert: I tend to favor Big Ten athletes (especially those with Michigan and Michigan State ties), but there's no blind bias here.
Wagner has gotten bigger, stronger, faster, meaner and more polished in his three years with the Wolverines; and he's just tapping into that upside, relative to the NBA game.
In fact, I find it shocking that Wagner would even be a consideration for the Hawks at 30th overall. He was genetically created for the league's small-ball era; and he'll be a 10-year starter at the next level—perhaps even a star, if he lands with the right club.
How's that for an endorsement?
USA TODAY
1. C DeAndre Ayton, Suns
2. PG Luka Doncic, Kings
3. PF Marvin Bagley III, Hawks
4. SF Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
5. C Mohamed Bamba, Mavericks
6. SF Michael Porter Jr., Magic
7. C Wendell Carter Jr., Bulls
8. PG Trae Young, Cavaliers
9. SG/SF Mikal Bridges, Knicks
10. SF Miles Bridges, 76ers
19. SG/SF Troy Brown, Hawks
30. PG Elie Okobo, Hawks
BREAKDOWN
1. OK, so that's two votes for Troy Brown at the 19th slot. He'd be a solid fit for new Atlanta coach Lloyd Pierce, a supposed proponent of the 'small-ball' philosophy of maximizing touches and minutes with your best five players—regardless of position.
2. Okobo represents the perfect prospect at the bottom of Round 1.
If he's in no rush to join the NBA, the Hawks (or another team) would happily draft him and then delay his 'NBA clock' for another season, while also shaving roughly $2 million from the 2018-19 salary cap.
Okobo has good size (6-foot-2, 180), solid ball-handling skills, lightning-quick moves to the basket and a firm command of those playing around him.
I just wouldn't take him over Wagner.
SBNATION.COM
1. PG Luka Doncic, Suns
2. C DeAndre Ayton, Kings
3. SF Jaren Jackson Jr., Hawks
4. PF Marvin Bagley III, Grizzlies
5. SF Michael Porter Jr., Mavericks
6. PG Trae Young, Magic
7. C Mohamed Bamba, Bulls
8. SG/SF Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cavaliers
9. C Wendell Carter Jr., Knicks
10. SG/SF Mikal Bridges, 76ers
19. SG Jacob Evans, Hawks
30. SF Khyri Thomas, Hawks
BREAKDOWN
1. For what it's worth, NBADraft.net projects Evans as the 55th pick in the upcoming draft. That's a Grand Canyon-sized gap between the mid 50s and 19th overall.
2. Regarding the 30th pick ... I love everything about Thomas's game. He was a lock-down defender at Creighton. His playmaking skills have few holes. He can get to the rim whenever necessary; plus, he likely won't require much time to fully assimilate to the NBA paces.
In terms of player comps, I'll throw out two high-upside names: Jrue Holiday and Victor Oladipo.
BUSINESSINSIDER.COM
1. PG Luka Doncic, Suns
2. C DeAndre Ayton, Kings
3. PF Marvin Bagley III, Hawks
4. SF Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
5. C Mohamed Bamba, Mavericks
6. PG Trae Young, Magic
7. SF Michael Porter Jr., Bulls
8. SG/SF Mikal Bridges, Cavaliers
9. C Wendell Carter Jr., Knicks
10. SF Miles Bridges, 76ers
19. SG Anfernee Simons, Hawks
30. SG Grayson Allen, Hawks
BREAKDOWN
1. We couldn't end this piece without letting BusinessInsider.com get final say. Can you believe the BI editors even green-lighted such a piece? Do they really love sports this much?
Jokes aside, there's no judgment here, at least with those willing to walk the plank of embarrassment with certain selections, should they be wayyyyyyyy off the mark on Draft Night.
2. So, two votes for Anfernee Simons at 19, huh? That seems really high for a draft with more polished talents and larger athletic frames. In fact, let's make a prediction here: Simons will log at least 20 games in the G-League next year ... or whatever secondary league owns his rights for the 2018-19 campaign.
It would have been great to see Simons develop in college, even for just a year or two. Oh well.
3. Allen has absurd range from beyond the arc. He's also a decent on-the-ball defender. So far, so good ... huh?
Well, that's where things take an interesting turn: Allen's reputation for tripping opposing players, or landing stealth cheap shots, will undoubtedly follow him to the pros—unless he's incident-free for the first year or two.
The weird thing about it: Remember how Allen was the hero of Duke's title-winning game versus Wisconsin back in 2015? Had Allen left for the pros at that time, he likely would have been selected before the 30th slot ... based on the timeless crutch of upside.
