ATLANTA–11Alive Sports offers a detailed breakdown of four notable prop bets for Giants vs. Falcons on Monday Night Football.
But here's a fair warning: None of the bets will address the open/closed status of Mercedes-Benz Stadium on this night, despite Atlanta experiencing chillier-than-normal temperatures.
Spoiler alert: The roof will be open!
FALCONS-GIANTS PROP BETS
1. OVER/UNDER: 52.5 POINTS
BREAKDOWN
Hmmm, perhaps the experts in Vegas are hiding a few pearls of wisdom with tonight's line.
Low 50s ... in a Falcons home game?
Upon further reflection, though, this absurdly low number seems too good to ignore. Here's why:
**The average cumulative tally for the Falcons' first four games stood at 68 points ... or two touchdowns greater than the Week 7 over-under figure.
What factors contributed to the high scores?
a) The Falcons have allowed the NFL's third-most touchdown passes to the opposition, despite logging only six games to date.
b) Opposing rushers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry versus Atlanta.
c) The Falcons have yielded the most receptions to opposing tailbacks. They also own bottom-3 tallies with targets and receiving yards allowed.
d) Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has been on fire since Week 2, posting a five-game average of 341 yards passing and 2.8 touchdowns.
e) In response to Devonta Freeman's injury-related absence, the backfield tandem of Tevin Coleman and rookie Ito Smith have combined for six touchdowns this season.
PREDICTION: OVER
2. LONGEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME: 50.5 YARDS
BREAKDOWN
On the surface, this seems like a sure bet with the 'under' camp, since touchdowns of 50-plus yards don't happen every day.
However, the 'over' group has a few bountiful stats in their favor:
a) The Falcons have surrendered the NFL's most explosive rushing plays of 40-plus yards (eight).
b) The Giants rank 31st with the bad stat of most passing plays of 40-plus yards allowed.
c) Two of Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley's six touchdowns have involved a range of 30 or more yards.
d) Atlanta has already given up 22 touchdowns this season, for a staggering average of 3.7 per game.
Bottom line: This one represents a 50-50 call ... a virtual coin flip.
PREDICTION: UNDER
3. GIANTS RB SAQUON BARKLEY: 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS
BREAKDOWN
In theory, this marks another safe bet for the 'over' crowd, based on past performance:
**Barkley has collected 45 receiving targets since Sept. 16–the most of any running back from Weeks 2-6.
**The rookie boasts a scintillating catch-to-target rate since Week 2: 84.4 percent
**Barkley has already notched two outings of double-digit targets this season.
**Last week, Barkley finished one receiving yard shy of becoming the first player in Giants history ... to crack the century mark with rushing and receiving yards in the same game.
**As referenced above, Atlanta has allowed the most receptions to opposing tailbacks. Unfortunately, the defense also owns bottom-3 tallies with targets and receiving yards allowed.
PREDICTION: OVER
4. FALCONS WR JULIO JONES: 0.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS
BREAKDOWN
This prop bet feels a trolling wager, if such a thing exists.
For those unfamiliar with Atlanta sports, Jones has scored only four touchdowns in his last 27 regular-season outings, despite assuming his typical heavy workload of targets, receptions and receiving yards.
And yet, for whatever reason, Jones hasn't reached end-zone paydirt in 11 consecutive regular-season games (longest drought of his career).
The numbers suggest Jones' streak will end sooner, rather than later. He's averaging 5.7 catches, 11 targets and 118 yards per game, and QB Matt Ryan has already attempted 35 or more passes five times this season.
On the down side, the Giants have surrendered the fewest receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts.
All the more reason to bet against the grain. Julio's wayyyyyy overdue in this field.
PREDICTION: OVER
